After twenty games, the Ottawa Senators are tied for second place in the Atlantic Division with 24 points and a points percentage (PTS%) of .600. Their 11-7-2 record at the quarter point is a vast improvement over their disappointing 8-11-1 record after the first twenty games in 2024-2025.
For many seasons, the Senators had played themselves out of postseason contention by the American Thanksgiving, but not this year. Can Senators fans finally make Pumbaa the Warthog in The Lion King and… start singing Hakuna Matata?
Unfortunately, it’s still too early to break out into song. The Atlantic Division is perhaps the most competitive in the NHL, with just six points separating the division-leading Detroit Red Wings and the seventh-place Toronto Maple Leafs. If the Senators find themselves in a slump, even briefly, they could easily slide down the standings. Here’s a look at what’s working for the Senators this season and what’s still a concern.
Insult to the senators – doubts remain
On the surface, the Senators may have solved their scoring problem. Much was written last season about their anemic goalscoring output, ranked 18the in the league and an average of 2.96 goals per game. That is not the case this season Senators rank sixthe in the NHL with an average of 3.35 goals per match. With a power play percentage (PP%) of 23.81 versus the league average of 20.56, the Senators rank 10the. Not only that, but their point production is fairly evenly distributed across their top three lines.
However, a look at the team’s advanced stats suggests the Senators’ offense still isn’t dangerous enough. After twenty games we succeeded an xGF (expected goals for) of 37.3 – significantly below the league average of 42.4. They’ve had 396 scoring chances – also well below the league average of 433. This points to problems in the way the team creates attack – they’re just not getting enough dangerous shots. They have scored 136 high-risk scoring chances so far – well below the league average of 153.
That’s not surprising since they generally take too many shots from the perimeter. Too many innocent point shots and shots without traffic in front of the net mean far too few scoring opportunities with high danger. They also have less controlled access to the offensive zone and poor puck cycling. The team often seems unable to force defensive zone breakdowns.
A low xGF can often mean that a team’s top stars are not creating enough elite chances. In Ottawa’s case, that’s understandable since captain Brady Tkachuk will be out of the lineup for the entire season. He is a virtuoso at creating the kind of chaos in front of the net that produces goals. Still, the team’s five top scorers – Tim Stutzle, Shane Pinto, Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson and Michael Amadio all have a xGF lower than their actual goals.
Yet there is reason for optimism. An xGF that is higher than actual goals often means that a player is getting good scoring chances, but he is simply not finishing the goal. If those players keep doing what they have been doing, goals will come.
The Senators allow too many targets in 2025-26
As respectable as the Senators’ scoring has been this season, it is outweighed by the goals they allow. With 67 goals conceded, they are in 22nd placei.e in the NHL. In fact, they have allowed as many goals as they have scored. To put that in perspective, the Senators were in thirteenth placee in the league in goals-against last season, with a goal difference of 14th placee.
Goal difference is an important indicator for coaches. Ask former Senators bench boss Paul MacLean, who explained it an NHL.com article that”To turn your season around, to get past a bad goal difference, that’s a difficult task. Those are telling stats, and they may only be 20 games, but they tell you how you’re playing in your overall game and the 5-on-5.”
The Senators’ goals against statistics say a lot about two aspects of their game that are concerning: struggle for goal and a dismal penalty. Starting goaltender Linus Ullmark hasn’t been good enough in his 15 starts this season, posting a save percentage (SV%) of .877 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.01. By those numbers, he’s a below-average NHL goaltender. His substitute, Leevi Merilianen, has figures that are just as disappointing. In short: the Senators need better goaltending. If they don’t get it soon, their playoff push will become increasingly difficult.
Despite their mediocre performance so far in the season, president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios is doubling down on his puck-stopping duo. During a press conference on November 10, he left no doubt about it, saying”I believe in Linus, the team believes in Linus. If you look at goaltending in the league, I think some of the best goaltenders go through periods where they don’t get the results they want.”
Related: Senators’ Linus Ullmark must silence his critics with saves, not words
But more concerning than their goaltending is their penalty kill (PK). The Senators’ penalty kill percentage (PK%) after 20 games is the second-worst in the NHL at 69.09%. Last season that was 77.4%, good for 19e in the competition. The Senators have allowed 17 power play goals. The NHL average is 13.
Problems with the PK appeared at the beginning of the campaign and so far the senators have failed to solve them. The technical staff will have to come up with answers soon. Stifling PK is the hallmark of many Stanley Cup champions, and the Senators have nothing close.
The Senators’ defensive corps is top-notch
The team’s defense is stronger this season than it has been in years. They now have three solid defensive combinations cruising the blue line, with Jake Sanderson leading the way. As Mike Fink of The Hockey Writers noted in a recent article, “Sanderson’s emergence as the number one defenseman has allowed Chabot, who is typically the workhorse, to play with less ice time and more quality. With Nick Jensen, Tyler Kleven and the smart addition of Jordan Spence playing the second and third pair, the Senators have a defense that will make them a juggernaut this season.
Some even argue that the Senators have one of the best defenses in the league in terms of shot quality. The Hockey Writers ranked Ottawa’s defense sixth in the NHL this season. If all that isn’t encouraging enough, Ottawa’s D-corps can score too. Among the team’s top 10 point getters are three defensemen: Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub and Sanderson.
Yet Kleven is struggling with a minus-7 and just one point, as reflected in his efforts over 18 games. Jensen has also had problems, with five points in 20 games and a minus-5 rating. Jensen’s issues can be excused, at least for now, after offseason hip surgery and an uneven recovery.
Ottawa senators develop character
Too often in recent seasons, the Senators, including management, have seemed content with moral victories that come from trying hard and getting close. After eighteen months under head coach Travis Green, that is no longer acceptable. He, like the fans, demands the real McCoy: success on the scoresheet.
Staios seems happy with what he has seen from his new bench boss, explaining: “We wanted to change a culture and an environment. He has a high standard of responsibility. He has a great ability to communicate with his players. He is open, he is honest and firm… he has started to develop an identity for the team, and a chemistry for the team… I think he has done a very good job.”
Look ahead to the Senators
It is said that ultimately you are what the statistics say you are. At the quarter-point of the season, the numbers say the Senators are a playoff contender. Fans can find solace in a Research shows that 76.6% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving, you go on to reach the postseason.
Still, there is still plenty of time for the team to get off the pace. Optimism at the quarter point needs to be tempered. Whether the Senators make the postseason will depend on a lot of things, but the two that stand out depend on a drastic improvement in their PK and more stable goaltending.
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