After seven rounds of Champions League matches, PSG and Newcastle United were separated by the narrowest of margins.
Both clubs on 13 points.
Both with a goal difference of plus 10.
With only goals scored, PSG is in sixth place and Newcastle United in seventh place. The French club scores twenty in seven games, Newcastle United sixteen.
An intriguing match in Paris on Sunday.
No team has scored more goals than PSG’s 20 in their seven games.
While only Arsenal have conceded fewer than the six that Newcastle United have leaked in their seven games.
When it comes to scoring goals, only the six clubs have surpassed the Eddie Howe NUFC team’s total of 16.
Of the top fourteen in the Champions League, only two have conceded more than the ten goals that PSG have leaked.
PSG have other impressive attacking statistics as they have had the most shots (148) and also the most attempts on target (54) in the seven rounds of Champions League matches.
Still an encouragement for Newcastle United, because Luis Enrique has seen his team lose 2-1 to Sporting Lisbon and draw 0-0 against Athletic Club Bilbao in the last two Champions League matches.
In their first five Champions League games this season, PSG have scored 19 goals, converting 18.6% of their attempts (19/102). In their last two games they have averaged more shots (23) than in their first five games (20), but have scored just once in 46 attempts (2.2% conversion).
This will be Newcastle’s tenth away match against a French team in Europe; they have recorded just one win from the previous nine (D3 L5): 4–0 against Sochaux in the UEFA Cup in November 2004.
At home, PSG’s last 16 Champions League games against English clubs have produced eight home wins, four draws and four defeats.
Newcastle United’s stats in France aren’t great, just the one win in their last nine away games against French clubs in Europe.
Interesting to see Opta analyst reporting on the ‘supercomputer’ simulations of the most likely outcome on Wednesday evening.
Opta saw a win probability of 61.4% for PSG, 18.8% for Newcastle United, a draw had a probability of 19.8%.
The Opta prediction is pretty much in line with the bookmakers’ odds, giving Newcastle United odds of 4/1 to beat PSG, which in their view is a 20% chance.
A draw is of little use to either team as it would almost certainly mean both teams would be in the play-offs.
Opta’s predictive model gives PSG a 62.3% chance of automatic qualification and Newcastle’s chance of 21.1%, which almost exactly matches the percentage chance of winning on Wednesday evening.
The fact that a draw is almost certainly of no use to either team gives this an extra edge.
If the scores are tied near the end of the match, neither team will think about simply ensuring the game ends that way.
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