Older people consume differently

It goes without saying that consumption patterns change as people get older. As people retire and enter their golden years, the demand for healthcare services increases and the demand for education decreases. You don’t see many people in their seventies among the student masses at universities or in vocational training courses.

These changing consumption patterns mean that as the aging population continues, different consumption levels in different parts of the economy are changing at different rates. A new study from the IMF used the United Nations demographic projections to estimate the change in consumption between 2024 and 2050 in different categories.

Take Japan below for example. This is a society that is already quite old, but is still aging further. The result is that the expected 15% decline in Japan’s population translates into a similar 15% decline in consumption across most categories. Healthcare is holding up slightly better than the rest, but the differences are small.

Expected decline in consumption in Japan from 2024 to 2050

Source: Ando et al. (2025)

Now compare this with China. There we will see a large number of people who are currently of working age retire. The result is that consumption patterns are changing dramatically. While the population is expected to shrink by around 11% between 2024 and 2050, healthcare consumption is expected to fall by only 2%, while leisure and transport spending is expected to fall much further (nearly 20%). Significant differences, even though the population decline is about the same as in Japan.

Expected decline in consumption in China from 2024 to 2050

Source: Ando et al. (2025)

Finally, if you want a very complicated example, look at Singapore, where the population is aging but also growing. These provide a complete mix of forecasts, with some consumption categories expected to increase (healthcare, housing) and others expected to decrease (education, clothing).

Projected decline in consumption in Singapore from 2024 to 2050

Source: Ando et al. (2025)

Naturally, these changing demand patterns provide the backdrop against which to assess revenue opportunities for consumer companies across industries. In most aging societies, the leisure and apparel retail sectors face structurally declining sales growth, while healthcare providers and food retailers face a more favorable macroeconomic environment.