Both contracts fell more than $1 on Monday after Iraq restored production from Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 oil field, one of the world’s largest. Ukraine will share a revised peace plan with the US after talks in London between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany and Britain.
“Oil remains in a tight trading range until we get a better idea of where the peace talks will go,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“If the talks fail, we expect oil prices to rise, or if progress is made and there is a good chance that Russian supply to the global energy market will resume, prices are expected to fall,” he added.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price ceiling on Russian oil exports with a complete ban on maritime services, in an effort to reduce Russian oil revenues. Also on the radar is the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, expected Wednesday, with markets pricing in an 87% probability of a quarter-point rate cut.
Looking ahead, BMI analysts expect an oversupply in the energy market, which they believe will keep prices under pressure in 2026.
“While much depends on OPEC+’s response to lower prices in the first quarter of 2026, we should see crude oil prices recover in the remainder of 2026 due to lower production resulting from slowing US shale activity and steady consumption growth, bringing markets closer together,” BMI said.
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