MediaWelcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for the best weekend bets and spot plays from experienced handicapper and tournament pioneer Noel Michaels. Come back every week for some highlighted selections designed to help you cash in a few bets and make some money. Noel’s selections can be seen virtually everywhere horse racing can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock at the Arlington International Racecourse track, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s Talking Horses, and on television on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
Six gambling tools for beginners
- Start simple with a simple guide to horse racing betting.
- Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language in itself. Let us translate for you
- What the heck is a speed rating? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
- Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR has put together a number of Do’s and Don’ts for the new fan who is starting to bet on racing.
- We all make mistakes when it comes to horse racing betting, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
- Find out in advance how much each bet will cost with our betting calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.
This Saturday is the day of racing and betting that horse racing enthusiasts eagerly await all year round. Saturday is the Breeders’ Cup Championship! Del Mar will host for the second year in a row and has a spectacular 12-race card in store, including nine Breeders’ Cup main events. The feature race will be the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, and if you’d like to see my picks for that race, click here to visit ABR’s Trifecta Picks for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic article. In addition to the Classic, there are eight great races to choose from for this edition of Weekend Winners, and I’ve chosen to focus on the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile as my other big bets on Championship Saturday. Good luck and enjoy the best that horse racing has to offer in the 2025 Del Mar Breeders’ Cup.
Del Mar, Race 7, $2,000,000 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff, post time 5:01 PM ET
A solid cross-country mare and field mare has been assembled for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, which will cover 1 1/8 miles on the main Del Mar circuit (reduced from 13 to 12 with the scratch of Scottish Lassie on October 30). There appear to be several contenders in the field, but three challengers seem to stand out above the rest as the horses to beat in exactas and trifectas. Let’s start with the versatile and consistent #1 Nitrogen who was no worse than second in all eight outings in 2025 with six wins, including Saratoga’s Grade 1 Alabama Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales after being moved from grass to dirt. Nitrogen suffers a narrow loss #7 Gin gin in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes that benefited from taking the lead that day at Keeneland, but the Distaff’s pace setup should favor Nitrogen’s close stalking style instead. Her speed numbers are a bit low, but she is three years old and may be ready to peak on Saturday. I always side with a horse with a fall prep race in the Breeders’ Cup, over horses that last raced in the summer. One horse in the Distaff, which is certainly not light in terms of speed, is a favorite in the morning line #8 Seismic beauty who is coming off a pair of earth-shattering victories in Southern California in the Grade 2 Santa Margarita Stakes and in Del Mar’s Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes presented by Oak Tree Racing Association, where she led wire-to-wire and posted high speed figures both times. She has yet to be seriously challenged to take the lead during her current three-race winning streak, but she will throw down the gauntlet to trainer Bob Baffert and challenge all her rivals to do so on Saturday. Let’s see if anyone is up to the challenge. Finally, there is another mare in the field that usually seems to be underestimated #12 Dorth Vaderwho unfortunately drew a broad target but still has the opportunity to win this race. Dorth Vader won the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes Presented by Ford in June, but perhaps her best career performance came in defeat last time out when she battled Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna at this distance in thrilling fashion in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes.
The play: Bet #1 Nitrogen (4-1) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes #8 Seismic Beauty (9-5) And #12 Dorth Vader (5-1).
Del Mar, Race 11, $1,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, post time 7:45 PM ET
This is one of the most important games of the Breeders’ Cup weekend that fans are most looking forward to. While the payout for this race may not be huge, the Breeders’ Cup is all about cashing in tickets as the fields are large and full of contenders and the returns are always good even if you cash in favorites. The main battle I’m talking about in this race is between the immensely talented Bob Baffert trainee #3 Nysos and the Dirt Mile defending champion #6 Full Serrano. Let’s hope that the race can possibly live up to expectations. Nysos has won five of six races and is just a neck away from an undefeated career. The only loss comes for Mindframe when he returns from a year’s layoff in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes presented by Ford in May. Since then, he has scored back-to-back big wins with big speed figures in the seven-furlong Grade 3 Triple Bend Stakes and in Del Mar’s 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 San Diego Handicap. Nysos was the morning line favorite in the Pacific Classic Stakes before being scratched with a bruised hoof the morning of the race, and the only reason he looks vulnerable here in a seemingly ideal spot is because he comes in without a prep race since the last time he was seen on July 26. In addition to his dismissal, there is another potential hurdle standing in Nysos’ way on Saturday, and that roadblock is called Full Serrano. The 2024 Dirt Mile winner at Del Mar is back to defend his crown and clearly has the ability to make it happen. Full Serrano improved his Del Mar record to three wins and a second in four career outings at this track in his first race of 2025, and his only local defeat remains his second-place finish in the 2024 edition of the Pacific Classic. He got a good fall prep race under his belt when he finished second to Nevada Beach in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita Park over 1 1/8 miles, and will take advantage of this return to his favorite track and shorter distances to earn his second straight win in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
The play: Bet on #6 Full Serrano (7-2) to win and play it in a strong Exacta box #3 Nysos (8-5).
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