The most lopsided match on tour will add a new chapter when Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur meet again in the semifinals of the Nitto ATP Finals on Saturday afternoon.
Sinner has won all twelve previous encounters and he is an incredible 27-2 lifetime in total sets against De Minaur. They also faced each other at this event 12 months ago, as the Italian rolled to a 6-3, 6-4 round-robin victory. Their most recent clash on Vienna’s indoor hard courts just a few weeks ago resulted in the exact same 6-3, 6-4 scoreline.
It’s hard to imagine a different outcome on Saturday. Sinner is just too good. The world number 2 remained undefeated in his round-robin group, with Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton all eliminated in straight sets. The undefeated champion last year in TurinSinner is now on an eight-match winning streak at this prestigious event. He is 13-2 lifetime at the Nitto ATP Finals, including a second-place finish in 2023 (lost to Novak Djokovic).
This could well be the end of the road for De Minaur, and what a winding road it was through the Inalpi Arena. The seventh-ranked Australian looked set to leave Turin quickly as he lost to Carlos Alcaraz 7-6(5), 6-2, before squandering a significant third-set lead against Lorenzo Musetti to fall 7-5, 3-6, 7-5. Needing to win his final round-robin match in straight sets to have any chance of qualifying for the semifinals, De Minaur did just that on Thursday, beating Taylor Fritz 7-6(3), 6-3.
De Minaur is of course in good physical condition, despite an uphill battle to get out of his group. However, it was an emotional ride and it had to take something out of him. His obvious mental block against Sinner doesn’t help either.
Expect Sinner to come off the field quickly ahead of Sunday’s grand final, possibly against Alcaraz.
Choice: sinner in 2
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