Useful at 30k: the technical setup becomes stronger
ICICI Direct mentions 30,000 as the next milestone for the benchmark index, citing three key observations:
The Cup & Handle breakout, which has historically returned 40% in the subsequent 12 to 18 months, according to the brokerage.A rising channel formation that has been keeping Nifty’s price action in check since November 2021.
A typical bull market correction of 15 to 20% – Nifty fell 17% in 2025 – which was on average followed by “41% gain over the next twelve months.”
The brokerage identified 23,500 as the crucial support zone, in line with the lower band of the ascending channel, the 61.8% retracement of the April-December rally and the 100-week EMA.
It also highlighted the historical pattern of rebounds from the 52-week EMA, noting that such rebounds since 2008 have averaged a 30% return over the subsequent year.
Bank Nifty was seen leading the next leg
ICICI Direct says the Bank Nifty is positioned to “accelerate towards the upper band of the channel which is around 67,000 in CY26”, supported by:
- Repeated bounces after dips below the 52-week EMA,
- An average gain of 28% historically in the seven to ten months following such dips
- A break in the Bank Nifty-Nifty ratio chart, indicating outperformance of the banks.
Sector rotation, market breadth and broader index view
The brokerage noted that the market breadth has fallen to 35, a level seen only five times in the past 25 years, each of which later delivered double-digit returns within a year. The report states that the small and mid-cap indices are nearing the end of their correction phase, with mid-caps expected to move towards 75,000 and small-caps towards 21,200 in CY26.
The sector rotation model highlighted BFSI and consumption as pacesetters, with chemicals, IT, auto, capital goods and metals in the next leadership line.
The company reiterated its bullish long-term stance on Nifty @ 50,000 in CY30 and noted that “the Sensex has delivered fourfold returns in every decade since its inception in 1979.”
ICICI Direct’s Top Picks for CY26
ICICI Direct has named nine stocks as the best ideas for the year, based on technical and structural lineups:
Bajaj Finserv – outbreak of an ascending triangle; target Rs 2,400
Indian oil company — multi-year outbreak of consolidation; target Rs 190
LTIMindtree – outbreak of a contracting triangle; target Rs 7,370
Pidilite Industries — favorable risk-reward ratio at 100-week EMA; target Rs 1,720
SRF Ltd — escape from the 38-month consolidation period; target Rs 3,480
Can Houses Finn — strong recovery after five years of consolidation; target Rs 1,110
Jamna Auto – outbreak of head and handle; target Rs 152
According to the brokerage, these choices reflect strengthening long-term fundamentals, improving momentum and alignment with sectoral upward trends.
Also read: JSW Energy aims to raise up to Rs 10,000 cr through securities issuance, shares rise 5%
Outlook
With the US rate cut cycle in motion, domestic inflation favorable and Indian equities showing favorable risk-return relative to global peers, ICICI Direct argued that conditions reflect earlier phases of acceleration. It concludes that 2026 could be the year when Indian equities “resume their long-term leadership”, led by banks, industrials and structurally strong large-cap names.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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