NH Trainers and distance traveled
We know that trainers have their own personalized methods of training horses, including how they place horses in terms of which races they will run. writes Dave Renham. In this article I will examine the records of certain trainers for the distance they travel to the track with their runners.
Introduction
It is clear that the location of training facilities influences the location of the racecourses in relation to the racing site; For example, trainers training in Scotland are somewhat limited in terms of short routes to courses. Nick Alexander, who trains in Fife, has two races within 40 miles (Musselburgh and Perth), and he still has over 55 miles to cover to reach the other two Scottish circuits, Ayr and Kelso. Compare this to Nigel (and Willy) Twiston-Davies, Fergal O’Brien and Kim Bailey to name just three, all of whom train within 40 miles of six different racecourses.
In terms of data for this piece, I looked at UK National Hunt races from 1st January 2019 to 11e November 2025. Any wins/losses are calculated based on the Betfair Starting Price (BSP) minus 2% commission.
It is difficult to say what influence a journey has on a horse. Logically we could say that the less time the horse has to travel, the better: it is less likely to become restless and the like during the journey. However, the counter argument would be that if a trainer wants to send a horse on a very long journey, there must be a good reason. There are a few situations where a trainer can look further afield, such as more suitable racing conditions, a less competitive looking race, targeting a specific prize, or trying to raise the profile of the horse or even the stable by competing in larger meetings. There are also cases where the owners want to run somewhere, either because it suits them or because of the associated prestige/fun day out. The intentions of trainers and owners are not always 100% aligned!
When I think about how a horse is likely to do on a shorter or longer trip to the track, I hope delving into individual trainers will help provide some answers. My assumption is that every trainer will be different, with some trainers focusing primarily on races close to home, while others prefer to travel across the country in search of what they consider to be better opportunities.
My approach will be to first look at distances of 40 miles and under to the racecourse, as most of these journeys involve a horse in about an hour or less. I will then look at runners completing distances of 175 miles or more, which I believe means a minimum journey time of around four hours given the likely speed limits for vehicles.
40 miles or less
I’ll start by looking at shorter trips to the racecourse, and below are the figures for all trainers combined when traveling 40 miles or less to the racecourse:
This gives us a benchmark that we can use as a comparison when looking at individual trainers. Below is a list of all trainers who have saddled a total of at least 250 runners with a trip of 40 miles or less from stable to track. I have limited the qualifiers to horses with a BSP price of 12.0 or less, to avoid possible lopsided winnings from hugely expensive winners. The table was ordered by Betfair SP Return on Investment.
21 of the 36 trainers made a profit with their runners priced BSP 12.0 or less, while 23 had A/E indexes above 1.00. A few handlers stand out, namely Rebecca Menzies, James Moffatt, Ben Pauling and Matt Sheppard. All four made excellent gains over the period. If we look in more detail at the file of Rebecca Menziesthere are three courses within a 40 mile radius of her stables and her breakdown for each was as follows:
Wins on all three, with Newcastle’s record being particularly strong. What’s also worth noting is her consistency year after year with these runners. The chart below shows Menzies’ annual profit strike rates in this context:
Every year she had a win rate of more than one in five and she also made a blind profit every year.
There are six tracks within a 40 mile radius Ben Pauling‘s yard, and he secured a profit on five of these. His record at Worcester was particularly impressive with 21 wins from 75 (SR 28%) for a profit of £37.37 (ROI +49.8%). He was a rare visitor to Ludlow, but of his twenty runners there, eight won (SR 40%), with a profit of £15.25 (ROI +76.3%).
All James Moffatt‘s qualifiers raced at Cartmel, while Matt Sheppard made profits at four nearby golf courses: Hereford, Ludlow, Stratford and Worcester.
Moving on to some of the ‘big guns’, Nicky Henderson‘s record seems quite modest for him, but to be fair, the only courses within 40 miles are Ascot and Newbury, two difficult circuits to become profitable. Just like Henderson, the garden of Paul Nicholls has only two courses within 40 miles, Taunton and Wincanton. Nicholls has achieved a strike rate of over 30% in both, with his runners costing BSP 12.0 or less, while Taunton has produced a small positive return of just under 10 pence in the pound.
Then Skelton has six courses within a 40 mile radius (Cheltenham, Hereford, Stratford, Warwick, Wolverhampton and Worcester), but only Hereford has achieved a positive return on these cheaper runners. His record there was 26 wins from 69 (SR 37.7%) for a profit of £26.50 (ROI +38.4%). However, with favorites on all six courses, Skelton has done well thanks to 122 winners from 286 (SR 42.7%) for a profit of £25.95 (ROI +9.1%). With these market leaders, he has proven profitable in the three major racing types and the BSP ROI percentages for each racing type are shown below.
As you can see he did particularly well with ‘level’ favorites in NH flat races/bumpers, gaining almost 19p in the £.
Before I go any further, I’d like to share the trainers who have achieved returns of over 10% (10p in the £) on horses that started in the top three of the betting when traveling 40 miles or less. The chart below shows the 11 that made the cut:
It might not be a surprise to see Messrs. Moffatt, Pauling, and Sheppard in the lineup based on the previous data, and it might also be interesting that none of the perceived big guns make the list. From a point perspective, I think it always gives us an edge when some of the lesser-known trainers have potentially profitable angles to exploit.
175 miles or more
As with the shorter distances, I’d like to set the scene by sharing the overall figures of all British NH trainers who have completed 170 miles or more to race. The total number of qualifiers is about half of that in the ’40 or less’ group, which is no surprise:
We see a higher success rate than the ‘short distance’ group, but losses are almost doubled. Here, backing all the runners blindly would have cost us 8.3p in the £, compared to 4.4p in the other group.
When looking at individual trainers, as before, I will use a price cap of BSP 12.0. To qualify for this list, trainers had to have had a minimum of 100 qualifiers within this price range, and I’ve re-sorted the table by BSP ROI:
This time, only 11 of the 34 trainers made a profit with their runners priced BSP 12.0 or less, while 13 had an A/E index above 1.00. These percentages of ‘positive’ trainers are not that good compared to what we saw before. Overall, at this point it seems that a shorter trip to the course is preferable to a longer one. Of course, not all trainers have had enough qualifiers to make both lists, but for those who have, I’ve done a comparison of their data at the end of the article.
Looking at trainers with positive results with long-distance travelers, Laura Morgan‘The figures are extremely impressive. Her record during this period was particularly good when she sent runners to Scotland: such entries (BSP 12.0 or less) combined to win 34 of the 101 races (SR 36.7%) for a healthy profit of £64.05 to £1 level stakes. The return was equivalent to more than 63 pence in the £. The majority of her Scottish raiders traveled to Perth, but all four jobs north of the border turned in profits, as the table below shows:
It appears any Morgan runners heading to Scotland in the near future will need to be closely monitored unless the market suggests otherwise.
Paul Nicholls was another trainer who made blind profits with longer travelers during this period. When stable jockey Harry Cobden was on board the record was even better, with a strike rate of almost 37% (82 winners from 222) for a profit of £58.36 (ROI +26.3%). They rode together at least twenty times on four different courses – Aintree, Ayr, Musselburgh and Southwell – and all four achieved decent returns. When we examine the value measure (A/E index) on these four courses, we see that the runners proved to have excellent value.
As for other big names, Then Skeltonlike Morgan, has performed well in sending runners to Scotland. His raiders have delivered returns of more than 23p in the £, thanks to a success rate of almost 32%. Nicky Henderson rarely sends runners to Scotland, especially Kelso, Musselburgh and Perth. However, he has had five winners from nine at Kelso, three from four at Musselburgh and four from eight at Perth. The combined returns for these three courses were over 50p in the £.
Finally, in this section I would like to share the trainers who had the best records with long travelers being sent off in the top three betting positions. Five managed ROI rates over 10% and these are shown in the table below:
Short versus long: a comparison
The last thing I want to do is compare trainers who had enough qualifying runners to make both the main tables, short and long. Of course, readers can look at the individual tables above, but it is more useful to have the key figures side by side. I used the following metrics: win rate, ROI%, and A/E indices. ROIs that were negative are colored red; what I consider positive statistics are highlighted in blue:
This table helps highlight some potentially useful clues, such as the stronger records of Henderson, Lacey and Murphy with longer travelers; compared to Pauling, Team Twiston-Davies, Evan Williams and Venetia Williams who all have much better records with horses running closer to home.
I hope this article has provided some interesting and useful facts and figures that we can benefit from in the coming months. As trainers, we need to be aware that ‘one hat does not fit all’, and I believe the more we dig into individual trainer records, the better.
– DR
Other recent posts from this author:
#Trainers #Short #Long #Distance #Travelers #geegeez.co.uk