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Week 18 is a wrap and betting lines are now available for the wildcard round. Here are our favorite early spread picks for the slate.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars [Total: 51.5]
Best bet: Jaguars ML (-102)
The Jaguars have been doing well lately, posting eight straight wins with an average margin of victory of 19.1 points to end the regular season. While there weren’t many high-caliber opponents in that series, it was highlighted by a 14-point road victory against the AFC’s top seed, the Denver Broncos.
While the Bills will be a real test, quarterback Josh Allen’s health could be a concern in Buffalo as the former MVP has been dealing with a foot injury that could hinder his ability to play outside the pocket. If Allen isn’t 100%, the Bills will likely rely on James Cook and the running game, and will face a tough matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks seventh in EPA per rush allowed since early December.
On the other hand, Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career after posting an impressive PFF grade of 94.0 since Week 13 – the second-highest grade among quarterbacks in that span. That will be tested against a Bills coverage unit that has allowed the fewest yards per pass (5.55) in the NFL over the last five games.
The difference maker in this matchup will be the Jaguars’ ability to exploit the Bills’ defense, which ranks 30th in EPA allowed per rush, likely leaving Travis Etienne to have a big day.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears [Total: 45.5]
Best bet: Packers ML (-105)
The Bears’ offense fell short against the Lions, who have struggled to stop both run and pass in recent months, to close out the regular season. Chicago’s defense was also unable to slow Detroit, with quarterback Jared Goff throwing for 330 yards and running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for 122 rushing yards at nearly 4.5 yards per carry.
This brings us to the most important point: the Bears’ defense, when not forcing turnovers, was one of the worst in the NFL, allowing the fourth-most yards per play and the sixth-worst conversion rate.
The Packers’ offense should be the healthiest in weeks. Wide receivers Jayden Reed and Christian Watson are fully healthy, and running back Josh Jacobs and quarterback Jordan Love got some time off in Week 18. Green Bay’s offense has been efficient all season, ranking fourth in EPA per play and fifth in passing percentage, and it will be a great matchup against the Bears’ defense.
We expect that offensive advantage will ultimately determine the outcome of the game, as offensive advantages often do in January.
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