Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to combine multiple bets from one game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script is applied. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven stories – how a match is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.
This week we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest likelihood of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams track themselves, and syncs with sportsbooks in real time so you always know where the best number is.
Here are our top SGP picks for week 10, each linked to a clear story the data suggests could be playing out.
Jets QB Justin Fields is seething against the pass-funnel Browns
The Browns have been one of the biggest pass funnels in the league this season, ranking third in run-to-pass EPA difference and success rate — meaning it’s much easier to throw against them than it is to run.
While the Jets have been extremely tough overall, they have posted two games in the last four weeks with higher-than-expected success rates, leaving some potential for additional volume even if it isn’t the most likely outcome.
Cleveland has also played one of the highest percentages of man coverage in the NFL this season, a trend that should enhance Justin Fields’ strengths.
While Justin Fields has struggled in zone coverage, he is close to league average against man, producing about 0.2 EPA per play more than against zone.
This Browns defense, while dominant at home, has consistently struggled under Jim Schwartz. This year has been no exception as they have allowed 0.25 more points per game away from Cleveland.
Not much needs to go right for Fields against a Browns pass-funnel defense that gave up 7.6 yards per attempt last month, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.
SGP Build (95-1 on DraftKings)
Kyle Monangai takes over the backfield for the Chicago Bears
Monangai has been a revelation for the Bears in recent weeks, as Chicago quietly led the NFL in EPA per rush over the past month.
Monangai has benefited from great blocking but has maximized those opportunities and emerged as one of the NFL’s most explosive running backs.
Now he’s matched up against a Giants defense that is among the worst in the league at forcing blocking mistakes and ranks last in both rush success rate and EPA allowed per rush. With D’Andre Swift coming off an injury and the workload already leaning towards Monangai, this will be a breakout spot – a chance for him to completely take over the Bears’ backfield in a dream matchup.
SGP Build 1 (24-1 DraftKings)
SGP Build 2 (140-1 DraftKings)
Chris Olaf enjoy a breakout game with extensive possibilities
Chris Olave has yet to put together a true breakout performance, but a matchup with the Panthers presents a sneaky sweet spot for both him and the Saints offense.
Olave has been heavily targeted against zone coverage – which Carolina plays at the third-highest level in the NFL – giving him a clear path to volume in Week 10.
As a result, while Olave’s separation numbers are unusually average, he is still one of the league’s most productive receivers in zone coverage. With Rashid Shaheed traded and more goals opened, Olave is also likely to take over the role in the field – an area where teams have consistently targeted the Panthers, who have allowed an average depth of goal two yards higher in the past three weeks than in the previous six weeks.
SGP Build: 36-1 on DraftKings
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