With the same game Parlays (SGPs) you can combine multiple bets of one game in one ticket, which increases the potential payout if your gamecript strikes. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven stories-how a matchup will probably unfold, which players can best benefit and where the edges lie.
This week we also lean on the new PFF player Prop Tool, exclusively available in the PFF -app for Pff+ members. It emphasizes the props with the highest chance of success, surfaces Matchup insights that NFL teams follow and synchronize with sports books in real time, so you always know where the best song is.
Here are our best SGP -Picks for week 1, each bound to a clear story that the data suggests that can come true.
QB Russell Wilson and Darius Slayton dominate Washington Commanders Single Coverage in an upset victory
The commanders closed last season and played one of the highest percentages of the competition of a few coverage and ended in the top three of the General. That trend was worn in the preseason, where they stood more in line than any other team.
In the meantime, Russell Wilson did his best work against a few coverage in 2024. He is in fourth place in pff degree and sixth in EPA each in those situations, largely fed by his aggressiveness Downfield – no quarterback threw deep or placed a higher average depth of goal (16 yards) against a few coverage.
So if Washington remains faithful to form, Wilson should have many opportunities to attack vertically in week 1.
Malik Nubers is an obvious candidate for success, but that advantage has already been priced in markets. A sneaky way to get exposure is through Darius Slayton, who runs one of the deepest routes in the NFL and is the best of the competition in creating separation against some coverage.
With Russell Wilson who disconnects deep shots this season, there is a clear path for the underlying figures from Slayton to translate into real production and this matchup against the Washington coverage looks like the perfect place for it.
Same game Parlay Build: 130-1
- QB Russell Wilson: 270+ passing yards
- WR Darius Slayton: 100+ recruiting received
- New York Giants: Money line
Marvin Mims appears as the WR2 of Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims flashed great underlying songs last season, earned goals with an elite speed and produced strong yards per route -Run, largely fed by some of the best yards after catching the catching efficiency in the competition.
Where he lagged behind was in chance. In a heavy rotation behind Courtland Sutton, Mims just didn’t run enough routes to fully achieve his efficiency. But with Devaughn many exchange and MIMS -Houtkaproutes on 25 of 27 dropbacks with the starters this preseason, it seems increasingly likely that he has protected the full WR2 roll. That makes the 36.5-Yard Line-Nog always anchored to use last year-looks out like a clear MisSprice.
The wild defense of the Broncos also sets the table here, with a Titans attack led by a Rookie in its first start. If Tennessee struggles to support discs, Denver must benefit from extra play volume, giving Bo Nix many opportunities to feed MIMs and push his posted total.
Same game Parlay Build: 41-1
- QB BO NIX: 300+ passing yards
- Wr Marvin Mims: 100+ recruiting received
Raiders QB Geno Smith is ready to cut an overrated Patriots Pass defense
This could easily have found its way in our matchup article, but it is worth emphasizing again: the Patriots ended last season and last in both perfect coverage rate and disturbance percentage.
And although the unity has generally been improved, they will probably be Christian Gonzalez without a star corner, leaving a large void in the secondary. Rookie Fourth Rounder Craig Woodson will start after the release of Jabrill Peppers, and there are still many gaps about this defense, especially on the back.
Geno Smith spent a large part of last season under constant disturbance, but when he was kept clean, he was very effective. Now, with an improved attacking line and a secretly favorable passup – especially when Christian Gonzalez is out – Smith should have the conditions to excel and put meaningful figures through the air.
There is of course some uncertainty about passing volume in this violation, but that is precisely why we chase the cataract result. There is enough space in the distribution where Las Vegas leans Pass-Heavy and Smith benefits against a vulnerable secondary.
Parlay-Build from the same game: 21-1
- QB Geno Smith: 300+ passing yards
- Las Vegas Raiders: -4.5
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