New analysis shows how curbing migration could cool Queensland’s housing crisis – realestate.com.au

Queensland’s sharp rise in house prices would be cut by almost half if migration were accompanied by housing delivery, new analysis shows.

The state now has the worst housing shortage of any major capital city, with almost three new residents for every home built, fueling calls to curb population growth to avoid a deeper affordability crisis.

An analysis of migration data by analyst Kent Lardner shows affordable shares are thinning out as demand outstrips new supply across the state, with the average house price in Brisbane rising 15 per cent to $1.075 million in the year to December and house prices rising 20.6 per cent.

Separate research from property technology platform FoundIt shows the average house price in Brisbane will rise 6.1 per cent by 2026. That figure would slow to 3 to 4 percent if migration were brought in line with the delivery of buildings.

Two units under one roof were sold as an investment property in Leichhardt for $1,002,500

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Mr Lardner’s modeling puts Queensland’s pressure ratio at about 2.91 additional people per new home in the year to the second quarter of 2025, ahead of WA (2.89) and NSW (2.42).

The data shows that the number of completed homes has leveled off at around 7,900 to 8,200 per quarter in 2025, after peaking in December at 9,715. About two-thirds were detached homes, with limited lift in the medium-density market, where rental demand is greatest.

Migrant arrivals in Queensland totaled about 106,000 over the four quarters to the second quarter of 2025, just under a fifth of the national influx.

While arrivals are not net migration, Lardner said the numbers show the scale of inflows hitting a slow-to-build system.

Riverfront house sold for $805,500

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“Australia can be pro-migration and pro-growth while still adhering to basic economic realism,” he said.

“If demand grows faster than supply, the adjustment is not moral – it is mechanical: higher prices, higher rents and less affordable options.”

FoundIt’s analysis supported this imbalance: Migration has trended higher since 2016, while housing completions fell from previous peaks, while price growth continued despite higher interest rates.

“Affordable bands have been hit hardest by the excess demand,” said Angus Ferguson, co-founder of FoundIt.

“Unless one of two things happens: migration growth moderates, or housing completions significantly accelerate, the vice will be further exacerbated.”

Across Brisbane, just 3.2 per cent of properties were priced at or below $500,000, while 28.5 per cent were below $750,000, further exacerbating tensions in suburban and rental properties.

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FoundIt’s Brisbane risk map points to the outer working class corridors as the most vulnerable:

Woodridge: Home prices rise 14 percent to an average of $740,000; median household income $1,199 per week; rent affordability 46 percent; purchase affordability after 12 years; 60 percent of households rent.

Kingston: up 10 percent to $737,000; rent affordability 42 percent; buy affordability almost 11 years.

Eagleby: up 10 percent to $745,000; rent affordability 45 percent; buy affordability above 11 years.

Riverview (Ipswich): up 19 percent to $680,000; rent affordability 40 percent; average income $1,262 per week.

Leichhardt–One Mile: up 18 percent to $685,000; rent affordability 37 percent; More than half of households rent.

“These are…Brisbane’s affordability gateways – the places families move to when the inner ring becomes inaccessible,” Mr Ferguson said.

“If demand remains high and supply remains tight, these corridors will continue to price themselves out, and Brisbane’s last affordable escape valves may close sooner than many expect.”

Mr Lardner said migration levels have not yet reached equilibrium after the post-COVID peak. Nationally, the pressure ratio was around 1.74 people per new home just before the pandemic in the second quarter of 2019, rising to around 3.82 after reopening in the third quarter of 2023 and remaining high around 2.42 (2025Q2).

Last year’s annualized migrant arrivals of about 568,370 amounted to about 3.27 arrivals per new home. Interest rates and credit conditions also played a role.

Mr Lardner cited Canada and New Zealand as examples of countries that had adopted “absorptive capacity” policies to link migration to housing.

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Canada’s real home price index fell 7.1 per cent between the first quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, about 26.9 per cent below the peak of the first quarter of 2022, after targets were set to reduce pressure from temporary residents.

In New Zealand, house prices fell 4.7 percent between the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, about 26.9 percent below the peak of the fourth quarter of 2021, due to tighter migration after net inflows were labeled “unsustainable.”

“Australia doesn’t need to copy their policies. It needs to copy their willingness to align population situation with housing supply capacity – before the market continues to do the rationing for us,” Mr Lardner said.

FoundIt said these examples show that “when migration growth slowed, housing markets did not collapse – but growth moderated, especially on the market side and on the rental side.”