By James M. Dorsey
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Israel plays a high-stakes game from Bluff Poker.
The problem is that the deployment is not only high for Israel, but also for its most important supporters, the United States and Europe, as well as golf states with which it enjoyed close relationships despite differences about Gaza, Palestine and Iran.
How the US, Europe and Golf react to the targeting of Israel on the leadership of Hamas in exile in Qatar, one of the three mediators next to the United States and Egypt in the Gaza War, will probably determine whether Israel’s gamble pays.
The fact that Israel has killed none of the Senior Hamas leaders gathered to discuss an Israeli proposal to end the war and to end the first reactions to the attack does not predict well for Israel.
The international community has rUnworthy condemned The attack, even if US President Donald Trump stopped conviction, but the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu publicly castigated.
Israel is likely to take the fact that Mr. Trump has included Mr Netanyahu in off-the-cuff comments and a placement on his social media platform, Truth social, but did not succeed in following a promise to one “Full explanation.”
Mr. Trump’s absence to issue the explanation seems to have only encouraged Mr Netanyahu.
While The prime minister warned Qatar and others Barely 24 hours after the attack that if they would not expel the Hamas leaders or they would bring them to court, Israel, the Israeli ambassador in the United States, Yechiel Leiter, the conviction of the international community turned off.
Messrs Trump and Leiter’s statements ignored Mr Trump’s promise, immediately after the Israeli strike, that Israel Qatar would not attack a second time.
“At the moment we can be a little criticism. They will come over it,“Said Leiter.
In the spirit of Mr Netanyahu, the attack was the next logical step in his long -term effort to discredit Qatar as a mediator, and accused of playing a double game by financing Hamas’s presence in Qatar while projecting himself as a neutral intermediary.
Mr Netanyahu neglected that handy that Israel had agreed In an American request in 2012 that Qatar Hamas allows to open an office in Doha to facilitate a backchannel and that he had asked the Gulf State to finance the Hamas administration in Gaza to keep Gazan and West Bank Palestinians divided.
Yet Israel rejects international criticism of the attack on his danger.
Mr Netanyahu’s warning was just as well focused in Turkey, Iran and Lebanon as in Qatar.
In contrast to Qatar and Lebanon, who are unable to take the Israel militarily, Turkey and Iran will probably go back if Israel goals in Istanbul, Ankara or Tehran.
More immediately, Israel’s attack on Qatar at least threatens to force some of his avid allies to go beyond words and act.
Qatar is the second largest gas supplier in Europe after the United States, good for 14 percent of European gas stocks.
In response to Israel’s behavior of the Gaza War, President Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission, one of Europe’s avid supporters of Israel, announced plans to look for this week Sanctions and a partial suspension of trade with Israel.
Mrs von der Leyen did not mention Qatar in her announcement, but there is little doubt that the Israeli attack is part of what pushed her over the line.
The 27 Member States of the EU have so far been divided over sanctions against Israel. It was unclear whether the attack on Qatar Holdouts such as Germany and Hungary could influence.
In the meantime, Mrs. Von der Leyen stated that she would freeze the support to Israel provided by the EU executive branch, which amounts to around 32 million euros (US $ 37.5 million), for which no approval of all Member States would be required.
Europe, instead of the United States, is The largest trading partner in IsraelAs well as the most important destination for Israeli investments, according to the Amsterdam Center for Research into multinational companies (SOMO) based in Amsterdam.
The center reported that the EU had € 72.1 billion in investments in Israel in 2023 compared to € 39.2 billion from the United States. Similarly, Israel invested € 65.9 billion in the EU, seven times more than € 8.8 billion invested in the United States.
In 2024, European trade with Israel was € 42.6 billion, considerably more than € 31.6 billion with the United States in the same year.
Moreover, Europe accounts for around 30 percent of Israel’s poor. It is the second largest supplier of Israel after the United States.
Credit: Somo
In contrast to Mrs. Von der Leyen, Mr. Trump on his toes through a minefield in his reaction to the Israeli attack. For him, the efforts are geopolitics, economic and personal.
With Qatar who organized the largest American military base in the middle, Mr. Trump was a pain to emphasize that neither he nor the United States were involved in the attack or had knowledge more than a few minutes in advance.
Mr. Trump emphasized the friendship of the United States with Qatar, A large non-NAVO allyAnd an important partner in attempts to negotiate a cease -the fire, if not an end to the Gaza war.
The president, just like when He failed in his first term of office to hurry to the help of Saudi Arabia If the Iranian supported Jemeni Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for attacks on the kingdom’s oil facilities in 2019, the reliability of the United States will have to prove as a safety partner.
This could put the United States at odds with Israel.
Together with Gaza and Israeli strikes against Iran and the Syrian army, Israel’s attack on Gaza has cemented Gulfa -perceptions of Israel as a rogue player who destabilizes the middle -east.
Mr. Trump could restore a certain degree of trust in the United States by pushing Mr Netanyahu more assertively to end the Gaza war and on his way to post-war security and administrative arrangements in Gaza.
The problem with that is that Gulf States, like many others in the international community, said that they would not be part of the gentlemen. Trump and Netanyahu’s vision of a deputy post -war Gaza.
In addition to geopolitical worries, Mr. Trump wants to take care of it Those promises of US $ 3.6 trillion in Qatari, Saudi and Emirati investments There are no risk in the United States as a result of the Israeli attack on Qatar.
The same applies to the Trump organization. Led by the two oldest sons of the president, the organization is expanding in the middle -east with New companies In Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
Apart from the expressing of a certain degree of anger, Mr. Trump did not state whether Mr Netanyahu has exceeded a line with the attack of Israel on Gaza.
With the United Nations Security Council planned to hold an emergency session on Thursday and an Arab Arab and Islamic top in Doha in the coming days, Mr. Trump does not have much time to decide whether he will call Israel’s bluff.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an additional senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies of Nanyang Technological University, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The turbulent world with James M. Dorsey.
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