NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Could Duke and UConn lose their No. 1 seeds?

In his top 25 this week, CJ Moore talked about Arizona and Michigan, a top tier all their own, and the prospect of “one of the most epic national title games ever.”

There are teams that can beat both, especially in a tournament that makes most things possible. But on Selection Sunday—less than five weeks away! – half the field will breathe a sigh of relief if they land in regions other than the one where the Wildcats and Wolverines are at the top. Everyone else will face the reality of a historically efficient team blocking a dream run to Indianapolis and the Final Four. (And no, Arizona’s first loss, Monday at Kansas, doesn’t change that.)

Two teams could provide clearer paths, the two stitching together the other two No. 1 seeds. Duke and Connecticut have been entrenched on the top line for most of the season, but both lost this weekend, opening the door a bit more for potential leapfrogging.

Both were high-quality losses in fantastic games, UConn against St. John’s at Madison Square Garden and Duke against rival North Carolina. These are not basketball crimes. But if Illinois had won at Michigan State on Saturday instead of losing in overtime, Brad Underwood’s team would have been in a hairpin battle with Dan Hurley’s Huskies and left one spot behind because those teams played and UConn won.

Numbers and opportunities offer opportunities for Illinois and Houston in particular to reach the top. The Big Ten and Big 12 hold nine of the top twelve spots on the real seed list. So the conference tournaments should be rich with resume builders, and in the meantime, Houston has games against three of the top twelve. Iowa State also has three. Illinois only has one, but it’s a big one: at home against Michigan on Feb. 27.

KenPom expects UConn to win the rest of its games in a disappointing Big East, though a trip to Villanova and the St. John’s rematch carry danger. KenPom expects the same for Duke in the remainder of the conference schedule, but the Blue Devils also have a game against Michigan on February 21 in Washington, DC. A strong performance in a close loss could cement Duke as the No. 1 seed. A victory would leave no doubt.

The bet here, the way things are trending, is that Houston ends up taking the last No. 1 seed from UConn.

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