Nationals avoid arbitration with Cade Cavalli

The Nationals announced this morning that they have avoided arbitration with right-handers Cavalli falls. The parties today agreed a one-year deal, including a club option for the 2027 season. Financial details of the deal are not yet clear. Cavalli was one of 18 players to exchange dossier details with his team after failing to reach an agreement before the deadline earlier this month. Cavalli filed for $900K, while the Nationals filed for $825K.

The $75,000 gap between the two sides was the smallest of the 18 players and teams that exchanged figures. However, even with such a small gap in negotiations, there was no guarantee that an arbitration hearing would be avoided. Teams overwhelmingly subscribe to the “file and process” approach to arbitration right now, and the Nationals are no exception. Teams tend to stick to arbitration negotiations and are willing to fight over even small amounts. That’s partly because player salaries tend to build up over the course of arbitration, and even a small raise in an early year of arbitration can lead to much larger profits for the player three or four years later. Furthermore, arbitration hearings are so focused on precedent that offering one player a salary above the usual range can create an outlier that players and agents can use as a point of comparison in future hearings.

In this case, the Nationals and Cavalli bridged the gap by exploiting a loophole in the arbitration system. Attaching a club option to the deal technically makes it a multi-year arrangement that cannot be used as a reference point in future arbitration negotiations and hearings. Without the cloud of setting a new precedent hanging over the negotiations, the Nationals certainly felt more comfortable with their flexibility with Cavalli and more motivated to avoid a messy arbitration hearing that risked damaging the club’s relationship with a former top prospect who could remain a key part of their team for years to come.

Looking ahead to 2026, Cavalli will look to build on a 2025 season in which he returned to the Majors for the first time since 2022 and posted a decent 4.25 ERA across ten starts. He struck out 18.3% of his opponents while walking 6.8%. Solid underlying stats, including a 4.09 SIERA, suggest Cavalli could be a solid mid-rotation arm for the Nationals next year, even if reaching the ace-level ceiling fans in DC he surely dreamed of when he was selected 22nd overall in the 2020 draft seems unlikely at this point. Cavalli will join MacKenzie Gore (assuming he isn’t traded before the season starts), Foster GriffinAnd Brad Lord one of the team’s likely starters heading into the years. Josiah Gray, Jake IrvinAnd Mitchell Parker are among the possible options to complete that group.