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Myanmar goes to the polls after five years of civil war. This is how the junta vote will work
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Myanmar goes to the polls after five years of civil war. This is how the junta vote will work

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Millions of people in Myanmar will go to the polls on Sunday, the first election since the country’s junta ousted its elected government in 2021.
The military has interpreted the vote as a return to democracy after staging a coup to overturn the results of the 2020 election, triggering a civil war.
Human rights and opposition groups have said the elections would be neither free nor fair, and that power would likely remain in the hands of the country’s military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
Richard Horsey, an adviser to the International Crisis Group, said the military had only allowed selective candidates who would not pose a threat to the military’s grip on power.

“This is not about public consultation, this is about achieving an outcome where the military’s favored party wins a landslide. This will allow them to return from direct military rule to semi-civilian or quasi-civilian rule,” he said.

Who participates and who can vote?

Under Myanmar’s electoral system, seats in parliament will be allocated through a combined system of first-past-the-post and proportional representation.
Regardless of the outcome of the vote, a military-drafted constitution requires a quarter of the country’s parliamentary seats to be reserved for the armed forces.

The lower house, upper house and military members each elect a vice president from among their number, and the combined parliament votes on which of the three will be elevated to president.

The right-wing group’s Asian Network for Free Elections said the system heavily favors major parties, and the criteria for registering as a nationwide party that can contest seats in multiple areas has been tightened, making only six of 57 parties eligible.
According to the election watchdog, more than a fifth of the candidates come from the Union Solidarity and Development Party, which is known for its pro-military stance.
Despite the 55 million inhabitants, not everyone in Myanmar can vote.
A military-run census last year admitted it could not collect data on an estimated 19 million people, citing “security constraints”.

More than a million stateless Rohingya refugees will not be able to have a say in these elections.

Where is the previous government?

Former democratic leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested following the 2021 military coup.
Her party, the National League for Democracy, is not participating in these elections, despite a landslide victory in 2020.
In a recent interview with Reuters news agency, Suu Kyi’s son Kim Aris expressed concerns about Suu Kyi’s health and safety and said he had not heard from his mother in years.

In response, the military junta said Suu Kyi was “in good health.”

In mid-December, Myanmar authorities said they had arrested more than 200 people under a new law protecting against election subversion.
However, authorities did not provide further details about the punishment these people would receive.

The results of this election are expected at the end of January.

The humanitarian crisis in Myanmar is worsening

Since the start of the civil war in 2021, Myanmar has been grappling with one of the worst humanitarian crises in Asia.
The country also recorded repeated natural disasters, including a massive earthquake in March.

The United Nations (UN) estimates that more than 3.6 million people have been displaced, with more than 6,800 civilians killed in conflict following the 2021 coup.

With the US cutting back on international aid, the UN World Food Program estimates that more than 12 million people in Myanmar will face acute hunger next year, including 1 million in need of life-saving assistance.
Due to the ongoing violence and disruption, Myanmar’s economy has been volatile, with inflation expected to remain above 20 percent for the foreseeable future.
— With additional reporting from Agence France-Presse and Reuters.

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