With reference to the “significant uncertainty” about trade and immigration policy, Powell said this about the labor market:
“The Employment Report of July that was released earlier this month showed that the job growth of the payroll administration delayed in the last three months to an average pace of only 35,000 a month, compared to 168,000 a month in 2024 in 2024. This delay is much greater than rated just a month ago, because the earlier figures for May and June were considerably revised.
“Het werkloosheidspercentage, terwijl het in juli wordt versneld, staat op een historisch laag niveau van 4,2 procent en is het afgelopen jaar breed stabiel geweest. Andere indicatoren van de omstandigheden van de arbeidsmarkt zijn ook weinig veranderd of hebben slechts bescheiden bescheiden, inclusief de stoffen, ontslagen, de ratio van vacatures voor werkzaamheden voor het aanbod van banen. Om het werkloosheidspercentage constant te houden. Inderdaad is de groei van de arbeidskrachten dit jaar aanzienlijk vertraagd With the sharp decrease in immigration and labor participation, has fallen in recent months.
“In general, although the labor market seems to be in balance, it is a remarkable type of balance that is the result of a clear delay in both supply and the demand for employees. This unusual situation suggests that the risks to employment are rising. And if those risks occur, they can quickly in the form of stronger layoffs and rising unemployment.”
In the past two days on the Daily Podcast of Housingwire I have emphasized that what happens on the labor market is not only population growth and immigration growth that slows down. The working average of three months lasts 35K per month, the production paths are lost and that also applies to construction jobs. This type of labor data is against the FED mandate because the FED continues to say that they are modest restrictive.
Currently, the 10-year return has fallen almost 7 basic points of its recent highlights because the Federal Reserve prioritizes labor problems above inflation. This is good for mortgage interest, which are almost on an annual basis today. This situation can change if employment data shows stronger growth.
What do I mean by “stronger growth”? If the creation of jobs returns to a percentage of approximately 70,000 jobs per month, the FED can go back to inflation, because some members have indicated that job growth between 50,000 and 75,000 is now considered the replacement rate as a result of delaying population growth.
With this in mind we have to keep a close eye on upcoming task reports. For today, labor issues have given priority over inflation, but the question is whether this trend will continue.
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