The brokerage believes that investors are likely to value the company by rolling back FY31 adjusted EBITDA margins to the present, or by applying an EV/NMV multiple to FY28 estimates, similar to the EV/revenue approach used for offline retail. According to its estimates, Meesho is currently trading at 1.14x FY28 EV to NMV, which the company believes is reasonable given NMV’s stable 3.8% margin expectation. The Rs 169 price target implies a multiple of around 1.2x FY28 EV for NMV, at a modest discount to Blinkit’s estimated multiple of around 1.4%. Within Morgan Stanley’s internet coverage universe, Meesho is in the middle of his preference list.
What do analysts like?
Meesho has built significant scale in the value e-commerce segment since its inception in 2015. The platform had approximately 234 million annual transaction users and more than 700,000 sellers as of September 2025, with an average order value of approximately $3. It offers a broad product range, with nearly 153.72 million daily active listings, supported by a hyper-personalized product feed. Morgan Stanley noted that 74.57% of orders placed were either generated through these feeds or driven by platform recommendations. The company also operates an asset-light market model, which supports strong capital efficiency. The brokerage believes that Meesho faces limited competition in the value commerce segment in which it operates.
Positioned as a thematic representation of the Indian consumer story, Meesho has built strong positions in the value commerce segment. Morgan Stanley said the company’s business model reflects proven global platforms such as PDD in China and Shopee in Southeast Asia. Meesho has achieved scale and leadership in several retail categories within the Indian e-commerce market, as measured by gross merchandise value or order volume, and is backed by a strong founder and management team.
Financial forecast
Morgan Stanley expects Meesho to be among the fastest growing players in Indian goods retailing. It has forecast a compound annual growth rate of 26% in net trading value for Meesho’s marketplace business over the 26-28 year period. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to improve from minus 3.2% in FY26 to 0.5% in FY28, with steady-state margins estimated at around 3.8% of NMV in FY31.
Morgan Stanley’s bull case
The international brokerage said it would become more positive on the shares if monetization progresses faster than expected without hurting growth. In such a scenario, the brokerage expects the stock to revalue to over 40x estimated adjusted EV to FY31 EBITDA, in line with the target multiple for Eternal’s Blinkit business. When back-calculated to the weighted average cost of capital, this valuation implies a one-year future value of Rs 239, which translates into an upside potential of about 45% from current levels.
Downside risks
Morgan Stanley warned that adjusted EBITDA losses are likely to widen in the second half of FY26 compared to the first half. It also said slower-than-expected monetization of advertising revenue could slow the company’s progress toward breakeven.Meesho shares continue to trade well above their IPO price. The stock is up around 46% from its issue price of Rs 111, though it is down 36% from its post-listing peak of Rs 254. Meesho shares are down about 8% so far in 2026.
The company made its stock market debut on December 10, trading at a premium to its issue price and closing 53% higher on its first day of trading. The stock debuted at Rs 162, a 46% premium over the IPO price, and ended its first session near Rs 170.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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