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Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons [Total: 49.5]
Game overview
The Rams are positioned as a No. 5 seed, but could swing as high as No. 1 in the NFC or as low as the final wild-card slot. With games looming against a pair of teams with losing records in the Falcons and Cardinals, there is little chance of them falling further in the standings. Winning won’t be enough to propel Los Angeles to an NFC West title, however; the Rams will likely need some help along the way, namely losses at the hands of the Seahawks and 49ers.
But the Falcons won’t give up to the Rams on this one. As underdogs this season, the Falcons are 6-2 against the spread. Much of that success has come on the road, however, as their record as home underdogs stands at just 1-2.
Conversely, the Rams were one of the most profitable teams in the NFL when they were road favorites (5-1 against the spread) and when they scored seven or more points (4-2 against the spread).
PFF betting analyst Ben Linsey called this match his favorite week 17 game market bet. Linsey explained how Kirk Cousins can struggle against a Rams pass rush that has ranked in the top five in pressure level over the past five games.
Cousins has been particularly sensitive to pressure this season, with a 40% completion rate and a positive EPA on just 25.7% of dropbacks in such situations, leaving Linsey leaning towards the Rams as the 7.5-point favorite.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: over 4.5 receptions (-115)
Robinson is one of the most explosive players in the game and leads the Falcons in getting him the ball in every way possible. He ranks second among backs in goals per game this season, putting together a high-volume receiving performance against a Rams defense that has given up the second-most running back receptions in the second half of the season.
Facing an explosive Rams offense that tops the league in touchdown drive percentage (35.6%), the Falcons are projected as more than touchdown underdogs. The expectation that Atlanta will play from behind opens up the opportunity for Robinson to see plenty of targets. When trailing by three or more points with Kirk Cousins under center, Robinson has seen a target on 25.9% of his routes.
Cousins has used Robinson (87.2 PFF grade) regularly in the passing game over the past five games. Since Week 12, the Falcons back has had the second-most targets at the position (32) and has surpassed this receiving line in three of five games.
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