Mock Draft Scenarios: Running Back ADP Trends – Dynasty League Football

I’m going to turn back the clock a bit and look at DLF’s Superflex Dynasty ADP from last April and compare it to the most recent ADP data we now have in January. I wanted to go back a whole year and look at February, but that didn’t seem like an apples-to-apples comparison since we still hadn’t seen any rookies at the combine and a lot of people didn’t know much about the class of 2025 at that point, but ADP’s April pre-NFL draft, with no landing spots, should give us a nice base to start with. The goal here is to see who has risen and fallen in ADP over the past calendar year, and hopefully help us identify players we can target in trades, hold, or try to trade away depending on their perceived value. Last week I examined the quarterbacks’ ADP trends, and now I’ll take a closer look at the running back position.

So let’s take a look at where we have been, where we are now and where we are going.

RB1s

Last week the top quarterbacks had very little movement, but that is not the case here with the running backs. I’ll get to the two dropouts first, Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams, because I don’t really understand it. In Henry’s case, yes, he’s 32 years old, but he’s only missed one game over the last four seasons – and that was in Week 17 of the 2022 season. He finished as RB10, RB4 and RB7 respectively over the last three seasons and is under contract for two more seasons. I understand that dynasty is a young man’s game, but for Henry to fall from RB9 in ADP to RB24 a year ago is crazy. Likewise, Williams fell from RB10 to RB15. He, too, has posted three straight RB1 finishes (RB5, RB7 and RB9) over the past three years, but he’s only 25 and running a Sean McVay-led offense. I would be very happy to start a ‘win now’ team with Williams and Henry with my 64th and 93rd picks.