Philadelphia 1-0 vs. DC United (11% probability)
While a 1-1 draw technically carries the highest scoring probability, the overall odds of winning lean towards Philadelphia, who claim victory in a tight, low-margin match.
The data case: The model only predicts a 24.7% chance of a draw and is essentially a coin toss on total goals: 51% over and 49% under, suggesting a cagey match where one goal could decide the match.
Why the algorithm chose this: Philadelphia remains one of the Eastern Conference’s most structured teams after winning the 2025 Supporters’ Shield for gaining the most points in the league, while DC United finished last and started the preseason winless. Even with roster turnover on both sides (Tai Baribo now plays for the other side in DC), the Union’s defensive organization and home field advantage point to a close win rather than a high-scoring affair.
As a new bet at 11% and +800 we get a fair value in the books again.
MORE: Philadelphia vs DC United MLS Predictions
San Diego FC 2-0 vs. Montreal (11% probability)
The model’s clearest winner of the MLS weekend is San Diego, with the league’s newest club expected to take care of business comfortably at home.
The data case: San Diego has a roughly 72% win probability, and the 2-0 win ranks two percentage points higher than any other exact score, a strong signal of both offensive success and defensive control.
Why the algorithm chose this: San Diego was one of the breakout teams in the league last season. It finished at the top of the Western Conference and reached the brink of the MLS Cup thanks to a potent attack. With playmaker Anders Dreyer creating chances and proven finisher Lewis Morgan added to the front line, the model expects a consistent scoring output. Montreal, meanwhile, is coming off a 13th-place campaign and continues to profile itself as a rebuilding side, making a controlled path to San Diego the most likely outcome.
Stop us if you’ve heard this – this bet is +800 odds, another reasonably priced prediction from the model.
MORE: Montreal vs. Montreal San Diego MLS Predictions
How Dimers finds the edge
These odds are not guesses; they are the result of extensive machine learning models.
By analyzing how a team performs in specific weather conditions, against specific tactical formations and even the performance levels of individual players, the Dimers algorithm identifies value where the human eye sees a throw.
Less interested in these longshot plays? Each of these teams also receives a Dimers model advantage to win their match, regardless of the score.
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