MLB mailbag: Mets, Red Sox, Murakami, Cubs, Tatis

This week’s mailbag ends up with the Mets’ offseason so far, Craig Breslow’s tenure at the top of Boston’s front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs’ anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s commercial value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I’m having a hard time understanding the Mets thinking. I’m scratching my head at the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend, who is a huge Mets fan (his last name is Metz), what he thought and he said it depends on which outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they broke the bank Kyle Tucker it won’t be an obvious upgrade. I would say Cody Bellinger is a small upgrade, but when you look at their numbers, it’s amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don’t see Cody putting up such good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they were shopping Senga instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez as a compliment to Senga, they all want to continue together. Again, I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a bit better than Senga, but if you sign one of them and keep Senga, he becomes your #2, which he is much better suited for.

I think last year was more of a fluke Devin Williams than the new norm, but he prefers Diaz, especially since William’s problem could be that he just can’t handle the New York spotlight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes, it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million in two back-end bullpen guys.

I’m just curious what you think of these moves. Do you think the Mets will be stronger in OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan, I would love to see a late-innings duo Edwin Diaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how David Stearns operates, how realistic is it for the Mets to sign Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options to find someone like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagan to be the setup guy while Williams is closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean they won’t invest in an ace for the starting rotation this season? Thank you in advance.

Regarding the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed’s friend. So far, we’ve seen part of the Mets’ offseason puzzle. It’s far from finished.

At 33 years old, Nimmo projects a player of around 2.5 WAR next year. It’s true that the free agent market has little to do with outfielders capable of doing so, aside from Tucker and Bellinger. But it’s also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several who were coming up. And that doesn’t take into account platoons that had a combined WAR type value of 2.5.

There is also a risk of collapse with 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract until 2030. Let’s take a quick look at the past five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

Nimmo’s track record is very good, and a projection system isn’t going to predict him falling off a cliff after a three-war season. But outfield is a young man’s game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+. At Nimmo, this could be an example of the old adage about trading a player a year too early instead of a year too late. So I don’t mind getting a player who probably won’t age well, save some money in the long run, and bring in a second baseman with a strong defense. That’s not to say Semien isn’t at risk of collapse of his own at age 35, but his speed and defense remain strong.