Missouri’s redistricting drama renews focus on direct democracy… and ‘Air Bud’

When I first read about how Texas Republicans were preparing to participate redistribution by mid-decadeI sent a text message to a Republican aide in state government, jokingly wondering if Missouri would join in on the fun.

It’s no secret that my interest in Missouri is being redeployed borders on obsession. Part of my love for the subject comes from its importance. The lines and where they are drawn can determine which party has a better chance of winning a particular district. But I also have a lifelong interest in cartography, including nearly winning my geography bee in high school and talking to a National Geographic mapmaker while I went on a business trip with my father.

Still, at the time I sent that text, I thought Missouri Republicans wouldn’t be focusing on congressional map-making in 2025—especially after redistribution in 2022 sparked a bitter schism within the Missouri legislature.

I was wrong.

Terribly wrong.

Missouri ended up being the second Republican Party-led state after Texas Unpleasant Redraw congressional lines at the insistence of President Trump. And Missouri Republicans were outspoken about their rationale: They wanted to impeach Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City to help prevent Republicans from losing control of the US House in 2026.

And Missouri Republicans haven’t just adopted a new map: they broken all kinds of legislative norms and precedents to push it to Governor Mike Kehoe’s desk.

But in the rush to deliver a short-term win for Republicans in Washington, DC, Missouri Republicans may have heralded the new map’s demise from at least two different directions.

EnterAir button

Redistricting opponents have filed a slew of lawsuits — including a particularly important one over whether it’s even allowed for Missouri lawmakers to redraw the boundaries of Congress in the middle of a decade. That case is still in its early stages, but the Missouri Supreme Court is expected to rule sometime next year.

On the surface, redistricting enemies appear to have a solid case: a constitutional amendment that they argue would only allow redistricting by Congress after a census. But Missouri Republicans appear to have a secret weapon to refute that claim: The air button rule.

In the 1997 Walt Disney film, a referee allows Buddy the Dog to play basketball because, after frantically searching through a rule book, “there is no rule that says a dog can’t play basketball.”

Flash forward to 2025: Defenders of Missouri’s redistricting plan have rallied behind a similarly constructed argument: “There is nothing in the Missouri Constitution that says lawmakers can’t redistribution by mid-decade.”

Air button analogy is a slam dunk

When I first heard this argument, I started asking Missouri lawmakers if they had seen it Air button.

Some, like Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, had seen it — and recognized that the Republican Party’s defense of the map was essentially the Air Bud Rule. (While a senator, Hoskins successfully sponsored a bill designating two legendary caninesOld Drum and Jim the Wonder Dog, as Missouri’s official historical dog and the state’s official wonder dog.)

“Other states have different processes as to when they can reapportion seats in Congress. But in Missouri, I don’t think there’s anything that says we can’t do this,” said GOP Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, who then joked that the new map should be called the “Air Bud Clause” if the justices uphold it.

The analogy gained popularity among those caught up in redistribution.

Democratic state Rep. Mark Boyko mocked Republicans by citing the Air Bud Rule in the House of Representatives. And during altercations earlier this month in Jefferson CityChuck Hatfield, an attorney representing plaintiffs seeking to strike down Congress’s new rules, said in court this month: “We’re not abiding by the Air Bud rules in Missouri for a very good reason, but that’s essentially what the state’s argument is.”

“It’s like my kids are asking me, ‘Can we have ice cream tonight?’ And I say: we’re going to have ice cream tomorrow,” Boyko said. “And they say, ‘Well, you didn’t say we’re not having ice cream tonight, so we’re having ice cream tonight too.’ No.”

Although Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway had never seen the movieIn an interview with me, she said that the principle “there is no rule that says a dog can’t play basketball” is “not a bad analogy” in describing the state’s main argument.

“The Constitution says that reapportionment will take place after the decennial census. It does not say that it will happen immediately thereafter; that it should only happen once a decade; that it cannot be revisited,” Hanaway said. “I don’t know what happened to Bud. I’m guessing he probably didn’t get to play basketball, since you use that analogy. But I think our chances of winning are pretty good.”

When I told her that Buddy not only got to play basketball, but also played football in the classic movie Air Bud: Gold Recipient, Hanaway said, “Man, I missed a whole genre. I really need to catch up.”

A surprising referendum

But the biggest threat to Missouri’s redistricting plan may not be lawsuits.

One day, after the exhausting first week of the special redistricting session in September, I took a walk near my home in St. Louis. Then a question popped into my head: If lawmakers were successful in passing the map, would there be enough members in the Missouri House to make it take effect immediately? If not, Republicans would not be able to avoid Missouri’s very robust referendum process.

As I got my kids ready for bed, I realized the answer was…no. The new map that Trump and Missouri Republicans wanted so badly could be subject to a statewide vote. If signature gatherers collected enough names by December 11, the map could not go into effect for the 2026 election cycle, defeating the entire purpose of the special redistricting session.

My story for St. Louis Public Radio was published before members of the House of Representatives arrived giving first-round approval to the redistricting law. Lawmakers ultimately passed the card without much difficulty — even though voters could ultimately wipe out their work.

After the special session ended, however, it was clear that many lawmakers had no idea the map could potentially be overturned through a statewide vote.

Opponents of the map have been scouring the state to gather signatures to put the plan up for a statewide vote. State Rep. Bryant Wolfin said he didn’t know the map could be up for a statewide vote — and added, “I guarantee the majority of the caucus didn’t do that very well.”

It is unclear whether the Trump White House realized that Missouri’s new map could be voted on. Officials did not respond to a request for comment. But there is no discussion about the referendum caused a lot of excitement among despondent Missouri Democrats which suffered another bad election cycle in 2024.

“I don’t even like politics, okay? I just know we need transparency,” Jefferson City resident Frida Tucker told me in September. ‘We must stop the power grab. We don’t have to do it every three years, okay? Something isn’t right here.’

So what have I learned from following this wild redistricting saga in Missouri?

To begin with, it is important to pay attention to seemingly insignificant details, such as the number of votes for a bill that was always expected to pass.

And other takeaways? Maybe you should rewatch the Disney movies of the 1990s before a redistricting cycle, because you never know when a throwaway scene could inspire a legal theory that sinks or saves a nationally viewed proposal.

Jason Rosenbaum is a political correspondent for St. Louis Public Radio.