Mining the Gap: 5 Forces Shaping North America’s Lithium Supply Chain

1. Rising demand for electric vehicles and energy storage

Rising demand for lithium is driven by both increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption and network-scale storage requirements. The US Department of Energy predicts that domestic demand for lithium batteries will grow five to ten times by 2030.

Worldwide the expects the International Energy Agency exponential increases in lithium demand from 92,000 tonnes in 2023 to 442,000 tonnes in 2030 and to 1.20 million tonnes in 2040, due to cleantech demand alone. This growth creates significant runway for upstream and midstream players to capture long-term contracts and market share.

2. National security and geopolitical strategy

China controls more than half of the world’s lithium refining capacity, creating strategic vulnerabilities for Western economies. The US government is firmly committed to reducing dependency by making proposals almost $1 billion in new financing for the development and allocation of critical minerals more than $3 billion in subsidies for domestic EV battery projects.

Canada is following a similar path, a commitment of up to C$52.5 billion to support investments in electric vehicle and battery manufacturing since 2022. Ontario in particular has become the epicenter of Canada’s electric vehicle and battery boom. The province has attracted C$45 billion in new investments from global automakers and battery manufacturers, signaling an expected increase in demand for lithium to supply these production facilities.

Emerging lithium projects in Ontario looking to meet this growing regional demand are positioned to benefit from strong political tailwinds and downstream customer attraction.

3. Automakers securing supplies at the source

Major automotive OEMs are no longer satisfied with merely purchasing on the market, but are now investing at the mine gate. General Motors (NYSE:GM) $625 million spend for one 38 percent of the shares in Lithium Americas’ (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC) Thacker Pass mine in Nevada will provide decades of supply for the auto company.

Ford Motor (NASDAQ:F) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) have also signed long-term offtake agreements with North American lithium producers. This vertical integration trend will reduce future input costs for automakers while providing mining companies with capital stability and assured revenue streams.

In Ontario, Green Technology Metals (ASX:GT1) is already joining this trend. The company has entered into an offtake agreement with LG Energy Solution, one of the world’s largest battery manufacturers, covering 25 percent of the initial production of the Seymour project. This early collaboration is a strong signal that global downstream players view Ontario as a reliable, long-term source of lithium.

4. Demand exceeds local supply capacity

By 2030, regional demand for lithium is expected to increase fivefold, but current domestic production can only meet a fraction of that need. The Thacker Pass project in Nevada alone could provide this sufficient lithium carbonate in the first phase to help produce 800,000 electric vehicles annually.

Even with the expected increase in lithium production, the supply gap remains wide, creating a multi-year runway for new entrants. As an emerging player from Ontario, GT1 is in a direct position to help close this gap. With a combined feedstock base of 30.4 million tonnes for the Seymour and Root projects, GT1 is working on a phased development plan to supply both spodumene concentrate and battery-grade lithium hydroxide through the planned Thunder Bay conversion facility.

Ontario’s EV and battery ecosystem creates a local demand center for which GT1 is uniquely positioned. Unlike many similar early-stage projects, GT1 already has offtake security and government funding, making it one of the most advanced projects ready to meet the supply gap.

5. Infrastructure and industrial ecosystems are falling into place

The North American battery ecosystem is quickly becoming a reality. Ontario and other regions are becoming hubs for electric car and battery production, with tens of billions in commitments to automakers driving demand for local lithium. These facilities are supported by robust infrastructure, including railways, highways, ports and abundant low-cost hydropower, which effectively reduce costs and accelerate project development. At the same time, established mining networks and skilled labor pools in resource-rich provinces are being reactivated, reducing execution risk for new entrants.

GT1 connects directly to this industrial ecosystem and benefits from direct access to clean energy, transportation corridors and nearby battery production capacity. This integration strengthens GT1’s investment case as a key link between upstream lithium resources and downstream EV production.

Investment Spot: Green Technology Metals

For Ontario-focused investors, Green Technology Metals offers a unique entry point into North America’s fast-growing lithium supply chain. With more than 30 million tonnes of defined lithium resources across its Seymour and Root projects, GT1 is advancing a phased strategy that integrates mining, concentration and downstream conversion to battery-grade lithium hydroxide. The company has already secured a 25 percent reduction in Seymour’s initial production with LG Energy Solution. It has also partnered with EcoPro Innovation to test and develop a Thunder Bay conversion facility, demonstrating clear alignment with global Tier-1 battery players.

Ontario’s strong industrial base, cheap hydropower and more than $45 billion in commitments for electric carmakers create a ready-made demand center for GT1 production. Backed by strategic investors, access to Canadian government financing and a leadership team with a proven track record in lithium project development, GT1’s value proposition extends beyond the junior exploration space and stands out as a vertically integrated company, providing an attractive opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the structural supply gap in North America lithium.

Takeaway for investors

The North American lithium sector is rapidly transforming, driven by government incentives, investments from automakers and a race to build domestic supply chains. However, a persistent supply shortage will continue to outweigh production well into the next decade. For investors, this imbalance creates rare early-stage opportunities at companies at the heart of this transition. GT1 is distinguished by its integrated mine-to-chemical strategy, Tier-1 jurisdiction and strategic partnerships with global battery leaders, providing optimal exposure to one of the most critical supply chain extensions in North America.

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