The $7 million, Class 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Saturday at Del Mar could be one of the most competitive Classics in history, even after the scratch of Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets winner and morning line favorite Sovereignty.
Eight of the nine runners in the Classic field are Grade 1 winners, with combined total earnings of more than $36.6 million. This year’s Classic is also a rematch of Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young, who finished first, second and third respectively in last year’s race. After his second place in the 2024 Classic, Ferocity took a five-month layoff and came back to set a Churchill Downs track record for racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt in a Class 2 stakes, and most recently the City of Light colt dominated the Class 1 Pacific Classic Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths, held at the mile and a quarter distance and on the same track as Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Baezaa half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, is fresh off a 2 ¼ victory in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, where he earned a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure. Nevada Beach recently won the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita Park for trainer Bob Baffert and with Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard, who will hold the mount Saturday. Opposite thinking was registered by trainer Chad Brown to serve as the pacer in the Classic. He finished last of nine, beaten by 68 lengths, in the Whitney Stakes and more recently sixth of eight in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (up one place due to a disqualification).
Forever young is the only Classic starter not bred in North America. After finishing third in last year’s Classic, the Japanese-bred colt won two stakes races in his home country, along with a win in the lucrative Saudi Cup and a third in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup, sponsored by Emirates Airline. Reigning race winner Sierra Leone is back to try to become the first horse since Tiznow in 2001 to capture back-to-back Classics. Trained by Chad Brown, the 4-year-old Gun Runner colt has never finished cashless in 13 career starts, 12 of which were in high-stakes races. Mind frame had three straight wins to start his 4-year-old campaign and will make his first start since jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. last won. was eliminated at the start of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga. Jose Ortiz will be aboard the winner of the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes Journalism for the first time Saturday; the colt, who also won the NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes last summer, comes in second in the Pacific Classic. Antique dealerwho, like Fierceness and Mindframe, was trained by Todd Pletcher, rounds out the field. He went clear to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup by one and a half lengths in his previous start, earning a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. Remarkably, the Preservationist colt has recorded two wins and two seconds from four starts in his four-year-old campaign.
Analysis and top contenders:
Mind frame and Baeza are the two lightly ridden horses in the field, both making just their ninth career start; However, Mindframe is four years old and Baeza is of course three years old. Mindframe began his career in March 2024, winning his first two races by a combined margin of as much as 21 ¼ lengths ahead of Todd Pletcher. After a great start to his racing career, the Constitution colt finished second in both the Belmont Stakes and the Haskell Stakes to Dornoch before taking a layoff of almost eight months. Mindframe, which resurfaced in Florida last March, won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes by Domestic Product by 1 ¼ lengths. On Kentucky Derby day, Mindframe raced around a sloppy Churchill Downs track to seven furlongs in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by Ford and ran a brilliant race, rallying late to win by a neck in a thrilling four-horse finish over Nysos, Banishing and Book’em Danno, all training for graded victories this year. After that win, Mindframe returned to the route distance back at Churchill Downs and ran a career-best – and best in the BC Classic field – 118 Equibase Speed Figure as he won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes by a length over reigning Classic champion Sierra Leone (Sierra Leone won the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes in his next start). As mentioned above, during his final preparation for the Breeders’ Cup, Mindframe took out Irad Ortiz Jr. shortly after the start. If you draw a line from the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Mindframe has been almost perfect throughout his career, earning triple-figure Equibase Speed Figures in all seven of his starts he completed. He has worked well at Saratoga since the Gold Cup and this colt can win from the pace, as a presser or as a frontrunner, so whatever situation this classic throws at him, Mindframe should be well prepared. Even though Sovereignty didn’t make the cut, Mindframe ranks first in late pace rating and is a major threat to all contenders. Even at revised odds of 6-1 in the morning line, he offers great value that may be overlooked by the presence of Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young.
The consistency of Journalism is indispensable in this classic. This three-year-old Curlin colt has never finished outside the top three in ten career starts and has been second best to Sovereignty throughout the Triple Crown series. After three straight stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Journalism finished second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness Stakes without Sovereignty’s presence and then finished second again to Sovereignty in the Belmont Stakes. After a grueling Triple Crown run, Journalism bounced back straight away to win the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in July, showing his grit and determination. In his most recent race he was defeated by Fierceness in the Pacific Classic; however, he was bumped at the start and still finished strong. Historically, horses in graded stakes races that finished second in a Grade 1 in their last start have come back this past year to win at 29% from 94 starts. Journalism, dating back to the Santa Anita Derby, has had a 1-2 finish pattern every start and if he follows suit Saturday, he could easily find the winner’s circle. This colt has consistently performed incredibly well in very tough company, and he has trained very well at Del Mar this past week. Journalism’s morning odds have been changed to 5-1, which is still great value for a colt who has proven himself time and time again.
Sierra Leone is also a horse with incredible consistency, never finishing outside the top three in 13 career starts. This Gun Runner colt managed to put it all together in last year’s Classic, running five wide to win by a length and a half from Fierceness and Forever Young. Although he started the season with a third place in the grade 2 New Orleans Classic Stakes presented by Relyne GI by Hagyard at Fair Grounds he rebounded strongly to take second behind Mindframe in the Stephen Foster while earning a career-best 117 Equibase Speed Figure. Sierra Leone followed that effort with a decisive victory in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, good for an Equibase Figure of 110. In the colt’s final preparation he finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to Classic contender Antiquarian; however, the same 1-2 finishing pattern angle that applies to journalism also applies to Sierra Leone. Flavien Prat, perhaps one of the best jockeys in North America in recent years, retains the mount in Sierra Leone for the ninth time in a row. With his proven stamina, tactical patience and unwavering form, Sierra Leone threatens to become a major threat to repeat as Classical champions, and even if he is defeated, he will surely still deliver a strong, hard-fought performance.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase speed figures in comparable races, does Ferocity (117), Baeza (116), Nevada Beach (108), Opposite thinking (96), Forever young (113), Antique dealer (113).
Win contenders in preference order:
Mind frame
Journalism
Sierra Leone
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