The No. 1 seeds in Saturday’s NCAA March madness Bracket preview was Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Iowa State. While the first three were largely expected, Iowa State’s inclusion on the top line was anything but a foregone conclusion.
Ultimately, the Cyclones (23-3, 10-3 Big 12) were awarded the honor by UConn and Houston by the NCAA Tournament selection committee ahead of their Saturday trip to play BYU. UConn landed as the second runner-up despite Wednesday’s unseemly home loss to Creighton. Houston claimed the second No. 2 seed, while Illinois and Purdue completed the No. 2 seed line.
With just over three weeks to go until Selection Sunday, the picture will change and evolve in the coming days. In fact, Saturday’s results will almost certainly influence the picture. But the preview, which includes the top 16 teams, offers an idea of how things are shaping up as the regular season nears its end.
As many as ten teams from the Big Ten and Big 12 – five from each league – made the top 16. The ACC and SEC each produced two representatives, while the Big East and WCC each had one team in the top 16.
Here’s the full rundown of the preview’s top 16, followed by the key takeaways.
Official NCAA Tournament Early Seeds
| Seed | Team | Conference | File | NET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | Big Ten | 25-1 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke | ACC | 24-2 | 2 |
| 3 | Arizona | Big 12 | 24-2 | 3 |
| 4 | The state of Iowa | Big 12 | 23-3 | 6 |
| 5 | UConn | Big East | 24-3 | 10 |
| 6 | Houston | Big 12 | 23-3 | 8 |
| 7 | Illinois | Big Ten | 27-5 | 4 |
| 8 | Purdue | Big Ten | 22-5 | 7 |
| 9 | Florida | SEC | 20-6 | 9 |
| 10 | Kansas | Big 12 | 20-6 | 13 |
| 11 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 22-4 | 11 |
| 12 | Gonzaga | WCC | 26-2 | 5 |
| 13 | Texas technology | Big 12 | 19-7 | 17 |
| 14 | State of Michigan | Big Ten | 21-5 | 12 |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 21-5 | 15 |
| 16 | Virginia | ACC | 23-3 | 16 |
Iowa State as the No. 1 seed
A theme in the race for the fourth No. 1 seed in the series seemed to be high-quality wins. Iowa State has wins over No. 17 St. John’s, No. 8 Kansas and No. 2 Houston. The Cyclones suffered unflattering road losses to Cincinnati and TCU, but those are classified as Quad 1 losses and the committee didn’t seem bothered.
While our expert panelists believed the nod to the final No. 1 seed should have gone to Houston, which ranks slightly better than ISU in both the results-based and predictive metrics that appear on official NCAA team sheets, the Cougars not having the same kind of blockbuster wins as Iowa State. Their losses were all in close games against elite opposition (Tennessee, Texas Tech and Iowa State). But then again, who you beat seems much more important than who you beat.
The “big win” methodology would also explain why UConn overtook Houston for the top spot on the No. 2 seed. Despite their ugly fall to Creighton this week, the Huskies boast wins over No. 10 Illinois, No. 8 Kansas and No. 12 Florida, which is an impressive streak of big-time wins.
Texas Tech not yet penalized
Texas Tech landed at number 4 in the preview, which is exactly in line with his oeuvre so far. However, this decision does not appear to explain the season-ending injury to top player JT Toppin. The reigning Big 12 Player of the Year suffered an ACL tear during the Red Raiders’ loss at Arizona State on Tuesday.
Why does it appear that the committee did not take the injury into account? Probably because Texas Tech hasn’t played without Toppin yet. Saturday’s home game against Kansas State will be the first post-Toppin data point the committee must process. While the Red Raiders are expected Being a lesser team without their leading scorer and rebounder, the committee doesn’t appear to be making any assumptions.
It stands to reason that if Texas Tech is demonstrably worse without Toppin, the committee will take that into account and treat the Red Raiders differently when ranking the actual bracket.
A stacked Midwest
While things will almost certainly play out differently on Selection Sunday, the sight of a stacked Midwest region in the preview was shocking. It also underscored the challenge the selection committee faces in adhering to strict bracket principles at a time when the majority of at-large bids go to teams from a small handful of conferences.
If this were the real category, fans of Michigan, Houston and Florida would be understandably disgruntled to see such stiff competition on their path to a Final Four. But the composition of the preview’s top 16 technically met the committee’s threshold for competitive balance.
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