The College Football Playoff concludes Monday night with the National Championship between the Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers. While the Hurricanes happen to have home field advantage, they are still huge underdogs as the No. 10 seed takes on the top-ranked Hoosiers.
Let’s take a look at my choices between Miami and Indiana.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers odds
Moneyline: Miami +320 / Indiana -260
Spread: Miami +7.5 (-106) / Indiana -7.5 (-114)
Total: More than 47.5 (-110) / less than 47.5 (-110)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers best bet #1: Indiana -7.5 (-114)
Indiana simply destroys opponents. It defeated Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals and beat Oregon 56-22 in the semifinals in a game that wasn’t even as competitive as the 34-point margin indicates. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and hasn’t slowed down in the CFP. Through two appearances, he has eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Don’t forget the Hoosiers’ running game. Roman Hemby has 1,060 yards and seven touchdowns; Kaelon Black has 961 yards and 10 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, head coach Curt Cignetti’s defense ranks third nationally in rushing success rate allowed and second in opponent EPA per rush.
Miami has gotten hot at the right time, but this is a team that wasn’t even expected to be in the College Football Playoff when the selection show started. Despite regular season losses to Louisville and SMU, the Hurricanes clinched a spot in the field of 12 ahead of Notre Dame. Can they complete their dream run on Monday? If so, they will be without Elija Lofton after the tight end suffered an injury against Ole Miss. Damari Brown, arguably the team’s best defensive back, is questionable after missing the semifinals. Fellow DB Xavier Lucas has been suspended for the first half of the championship game due to a targeting penalty in the Fiesta Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers best player prop bet: Malachi Toney Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Hoosiers’ defense is excellent, but could be at least somewhat vulnerable in the secondary. As of Week 9 of the regular season, Indiana is outside the top 90 in passing PPA and 55th in passing percentage allowed. The unit has also been outside the top 100 in allowable explosiveness since late October.
Perhaps most importantly, the game script likely calls for a lot of passing from the Hurricanes – whether they like it or not. Chances are they will be left behind from start to finish. If so, Carson Beck will have to air it early and often. Toney comes in with 99 catches for 1,089 yards and nine touchdowns. He has collected at least 81 yards in three of the last five games, including performances of 126 and 146 yards during this stretch.
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