Tucker, 29 this weekend, has had an unusually quiet market by the standards of other recent top free agents such as Juan Soto, Shohei OhtaniAnd Aaron Judgeeach of which signed in December. Things have been heating up over the past week, though, and all signs point to a trio of teams emerging as the most likely landing spot for the multi-time All-Star: the Mets, the Blue Jays and the Dodgers. Previous reports have indicated that the Blue Jays have a long-term deal on the table for Tucker, while the Mets have preferred a shorter-term deal at a higher average annual value. Concrete reporting on the Dodgers’ pursuit of Tucker was minimal, but previous comments from the front office over the winter indicated hesitancy to add another long-term deal to their aging roster and locking down elite top outfield prospects like Zyhir Hope And José de Paula long term.
Reporting on the Mets’ offers to Tucker varied throughout the week. Initial reports suggested that the club had made a three-year offer to Tucker in the range of $120 million to $140 million, and later reports indicated that the Mets had offered a $50 million AAV with no specific number of years attached to that report. This latest report of a four-year offer also comes without a specific AAV attached to it. That leaves open the possibility that New York has multiple offers on the table for Tucker, with varying annual salaries and contract structures all falling under the more general umbrella of short-term with relatively high annual salaries. Of course, it could also be that the Mets have simply increased their offer in recent days.
If owner Steve Cohen and his front office have offered Tucker $200 million or more over the next four seasons, that would certainly be a tough package to turn down without an incredible long-term offer. Tucker could be in line to re-enter free agency ahead of his age-33 season, and while he would likely have to settle for a new shorter-term contract in his mid-30s, it’s worth remembering that Kyle Schwarber was signed to a five-year, $150 million contract with the Phillies as a DH-only slugger entered his own age-33 season earlier this winter. In that context, it’s not hard to imagine Tucker making $350 million or more over the remainder of his playing career if he signed a four-year deal at a $50 million AAV and then signed another contract or two. It’s also possible (and perhaps even likely) that a shorter-term arrangement would provide at least one opt-out option somewhere in the deal, making it even easier for Tucker to return to free agency in search of a more lucrative offer.
On the other hand, it’s not hard to argue that Tucker is exactly the kind of incredible long-term offer that would be worth spending $200 million on over four years. Tucker was an All-Star in four consecutive seasons, finished fifth in the AL MVP voting in 2023, and has since posted 9.2 bWAR and 8.7 fWAR in just 214 games with a .274/.388/.507 (152 wRC+) slash line to show for it. A tough second half for the Cubs last year and injuries that have limited him to that relatively light slate of games over the past two years have apparently caused some concern among interested clubs, but the benefit of adding a perennial MVP candidate to the middle of the lineup in his prime years is undeniable.
MLBTR’s own prediction for Tucker’s contract at the start of the offseason was an 11-year, $400 million pact. That kind of contract would be a no-brainer to opt for a shorter-term deal, even at a $50 million AAV. How far below that figure a long-term offer could fall before Tucker would start thinking more seriously about a short-term pact with a high AAV would certainly depend on Tucker’s own personal risk tolerance and desire for stability. It would certainly be bold to avoid even anything close to the $330 million deal Bryce Harper landed in Philadelphia during the 2018-19 offseason, but a good counterargument to that would be that Harper himself might have come out ahead financially if he had instead signed the reported $45 million short-term AAV offer he received from the Dodgers that winter and returned to the market in a few years.
Wherever Tucker ultimately ends up, and whatever contract structure he ultimately chooses, it’s becoming increasingly likely that his free agency will rush toward a conclusion in the coming days. The Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported earlier this morning that a decision could come from Tucker’s camp as early as today, and given the frenzy of reporting in recent days, it seems likely that the parties involved are all busy making their top offers as Tucker nears a decision.
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