These two teams have traded places in recent weeks, with Arizona passing Michigan after Saturday’s 84-47 win over Oklahoma State, and Michigan jumping back into the lead after Sunday’s 21-point win over Ohio State.
If the season were to end today, Michigan would have the third-highest efficiency margin in KenPom history and Arizona would be fifth. (KenPom’s database goes back to the 1996-97 season.)
Those teams could be on a collision course for one of the most epic national title games ever, but if they’re at a top level in their own right, the next level, where I’d have UConn, Duke, Illinois and Houston, isn’t that far behind. Houston has the worst resume of that group, which is why even though the top three all lost this weekend, I have the Cougars right where they were a week ago.
It’s conceivable you could go even deeper, including Nebraska, Iowa State and Michigan State.
A reflection of the depth at the top: This past week, the top 10 teams in the Associated Press poll had a combined 16 losses, and nine had come to other top 10 teams. You could say this was the first bad week for that group, with five teams losing, but two of those five coming to other Top 10 teams and two others to Top 25 teams. (That’s why Gonzaga, now one of two Top 25 teams with a Quad 3 loss, took a big dive because of the loss to Portland.)
One more note about this week’s rankings: I dropped Clemson even though Clemson didn’t lose a game last week. Iowa, which has won six straight and is ranked No. 18 by KenPom, bumped the Tigers, who would have been No. 26 on my ballot.
Below, more on Arizona contesting everything, Houston’s shot differential, Jeremy Fears Jr. from Michigan State using ‘Gortats’, the elite defense of the Florida greats, St. John’s going off with Dillon Mitchell at point forward and the pass that set up North Carolina’s game winner.
Failed: Clemson
Keep an eye on: NC State, Utah State, Villanova, Kentucky
1. Arizona (23-0)
Arizona had the best-adjusted defensive efficiency in the country until Michigan passed it on Sunday, and one of the reasons Arizona’s defense is so elite is that openly opposing it is a rarity. Oklahoma State scored just 47 points on 75 possessions on Saturday, and I charted every shot. The Cowboys had just 10 open shots and made just four: a dunk in transition, a bench corner elbow jumper, a layup and a three-pointer.
The Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot just 48.2 percent at the rim, best among major teams, according to Synergy. In two games this past week, they allowed just three easy baskets at the rim. Everything is controversial. They keep the ball in front of them and are extremely tall: the seventh tallest team in college basketball according to KenPom.
Michigan and Arizona are both playing by the numbers, allowing for the most dribble jumpers per game in the country, according to Synergy’s tracking. Kansas has one of the best off-the-dribble scorers in college basketball in Darryn Peterson. He will need to have a great game for Kansas to have a chance to hand Arizona its first loss on Monday.
6. Houston (21-2)
Houston leads college basketball in field goal attempt differential. This is Kelvin Sampson’s best team in terms of getting more shots (11.1 per game) than the opponent.
The formula is always the same: force more turnovers than the opponent and win the glass. This team dominates in the turnover category, giving the ball away on just 12.4 percent of its possessions (second best nationally) and taking the ball away on 22.6 percent of its opponent’s possessions (fifth best).
Houston outpaces other high majors by a wide margin in both field goal attempts and turnover differential:
(Source: CBB Analytics)
What’s crazy is that the Cougars are getting even better at taking care of the ball in Big 12 play, turning over just 10.3 percent of their possessions. They have committed just 13 turnovers in their last three games.
10. Michigan State (20-4)
Fears is so elite at navigating the middle of the floor and finding small holes to attack and waiting for his bigs to set “Gortat” screens – named after former NBA center Marcin Gortat – to give him lanes to attack.
Against Illinois, Fears scored four of his buckets set up by a Gortat screen or one on a second screen in the lane, and he was also sent to the free-throw line twice on plays by Gortats.
Fears has mastered dribbling the hostages, trapping his defender in front of him and then waiting for his big to run back in front of him and take out the rim protector.
Between his points, assists and passes that set up free throws, Fears was responsible for 61 of Michigan State’s 85 points in Saturday’s win over Illinois. It was one of the best single-game performances this season.
12. Florida (17-6)
Texas A&M is the kind of team that, on paper, seems built to score against Florida’s defense. The Aggies are small and play in a five-out offense. The Gators start three big ones. So the plan would be to force those big ones to watch on the floor on islands.
The Aggies tried, and they scored on just two of their first 18 possessions. It took until 7:44 into the first half for them to score their second bucket.
The Florida bigs can all slide their feet, allowing the Gators to rarely provide help and keep the help count low.
Synergy keeps track of who the defender was at the end of a possession, and while it’s not 100 percent accurate, it’s close. So I pulled out the three categories that reflect how difficult it is to score against the Florida bigs.
| Alex Condon | Rueben Chinyelu | Thomas Haugh | General | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dribble jumpers | 7-27 | 14-23 | 15-40 | 36-90 (40%) |
Shots on the rim | 16-49 | 20-48 | 8-27 | 44-124 (35.4%) |
Runners | 4-7 | 0-2 | 2-8 | 6-17 (35.2%) |
General | 27-83 (32.5%) | 34-73 (46.6%) | 25-75 (33.3%) | 86-231 (37.2%) |
Not all shots at the rim come off the dribble, but that percentage at the rim is pretty unreal. Those should be efficient shots, but that’s not the case when the bigs from Florida are around.
16. Sint-Jan (18-5)
The Johnnies are 9-0 since Rick Pitino put 6-foot-4 senior Dillon Mitchell back in the starting lineup and turned him into a point forward.
Mitchell has a problem with a live dribble in space, which UConn found out:
“Where’s Skip 2 My Lou?! With that crossover!” 🎙️
Gus Johnson likes what he sees @StJohnsBBall’s Dillon Mitchell so far. pic.twitter.com/ckWuKqg4iM
— FOX College Hoops (@CBbonFOX) February 7, 2026
Rick Pitino’s marquee lineup (featuring Mitchell, Bryce Hopkins and Zuby Ejiofor) is outscoring opponents by 27.8 points per 100 possessions during this winning streak by dominating the offensive glass, recovering 42 percent of misses and winning the turnover battle, posting a turnover rate of 9.8 while forcing opponents to use 20.2 percent of their possessions, according to CBB Analytics.
The Johnnies could be on the verge of becoming even more dominant than they already have been. Opponents have shot 39.3 percent from 3 during this winning streak, and some regression could be looming.
17. North Carolina (19-4)
Seth Trimble got all the love for hitting the game winner against Duke and rightly so, but what about the pass?
On Jan. 17, during the second game of UNC’s nightmare West Coast swing, when it lost to Stanford and Cal, coach Hubert Davis decided to insert freshman Derek Dixon into the starting lineup. The Heels lost that night, but they have since won five in a row, and the offense has been brilliant with Dixon, scoring 1.29 points per possession while Dixon has been on the floor in the past six games, according to CBB Analytics.
Dixon gets the ball where it needs to go, just like he did on the game winner:
SETH TRIMBLE WINS IT FOR NORTH CAROLINA 😱
OUR SPORT>>>> https://t.co/LetlawFb6y pic.twitter.com/oSMZvxphLj
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 8, 2026
Note that Caleb Wilson also had a free run to the rim and could have won the game with a dunk, but that might have been a more difficult pass. Supplying either would have been a smart move. Also notable is Duke’s defensive collapse, with Dame Sarr not immediately realizing it was a switch. If he had stayed with Wilson, he likely would have been closer to Trimble upon release. It still may not have mattered, but it’s those little details that can win or lose a game, and the Heels were seamless late on their transitions, forcing Duke into tough shots.
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