Melbourne: where house prices are rising despite burglary boom – realestate.com.au

Melbourne homebuyers are driving price hikes in increasing burglary hotspots, with surprising statistics showing crime isn’t always a deterrent to property premiums.

While Victoria Police data shows the Mornington Peninsula and new housing estates have seen the biggest increase in burglaries in the city in a 12-month period, separate PropTrack data shows that average house prices have risen in all but one suburb – and 11 of them have outperformed the wider city.

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But experts have warned that some homebuyers are not paying much attention to crime rates, while many others are avoiding suburbs they consider unsafe.

Installing home security measures and insurance premiums can also add thousands of dollars to a buyer’s costs.

Analysis of Victoria’s Crime Statistics Agency figures by Titan Shutters shows that both residential and commercial burglaries have more than doubled in areas such as Blairgowrie and Safety Beach on the Peninsula, Aintree and Deanside in the city’s west and Hadfield in the northern suburbs.

Notably, the sharp increase came from a fairly low base for some suburbs, such as Blairgowrie.

The coastal hamlet recorded 40 burglaries in the year to September 30, 2025, compared to 13 burglaries in the previous 12 months.

Analysis of crime statistics shows that in the 12 months to September 30, 2025, 49 Melbourne suburbs saw burglaries increase by 30 per cent or more.

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Melbourne-based director of Advantage Property Consulting and buyer advocate Frank Valentic said many buyers were undeterred by rising burglary rates, especially when the overall number of burglaries was not that notable.

“Often it is a stepping stone for a young first home buyer to enter the market and then move to a better lifestyle and a more affluent suburb,” Mr Valentic said.

In the year to January, 11 of the 15 biggest burglaries in Melbourne saw average house price increases, which exceeded Greater Melbourne’s average house price growth of 3.8 per cent for the period.

Frank Valentic, director of Advantage Property Consulting and buyer advocate, says all suburbs have their respective good and bad points when it comes to crime levels.

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Nevertheless, Mr Valentic said he had also met many buyers looking at the crime rate, especially women.

“They look to see if crime rates are rising or falling in an area and often contact the police or local neighborhood watch to get an idea of ​​how safe or unsafe the area is,” he said.

Mr Valentic said rising crime could lead to higher insurance premiums and home security costs.

Security cameras can cost between $50 and $1,475, while financial comparison website Canstar estimates the cost of shutters at $300 to $1,000. Another financial comparison website, Finder, found last year that the average Victorian home insurance premium had risen from $425 to $2,442 in 12 months, with some higher crime areas offering even higher premiums.

Property buyers in suburbs with a higher crime rate often purchase a home with plans to install security measures.

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Titan Shutters managing director David Spottiswood said 61 per cent of the 48,386 Victorian burglaries reported to police in the year to September 30, 2025, affected residential properties.

“Based on the data, we can speculate that homes are seen as easier targets for burglars. This may be due to the fact that they do not have the same level of security as shops or businesses,” Spottiswood said.

“Our advice to residents is to make it as difficult as possible for burglars to break into your home, to prevent them from trying to get in in the first place.”

The chief economist at real estate agency PRD, Dr Diaswati (Asti) Mardiasmo, said that with rising interest rates, the price of a house, construction quality and nearby amenities such as schools and public transport often outweigh concerns about the number of burglaries.

“The house itself and the location are more important than the crime,” Dr. Mardiasmo said.

Dr. Diaswati Mardiasmo, chief economist at PRD Real Estate, says population growth and unemployment can have an impact on crime rates in a suburb.

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Melbourne buyers looking to secure a home rather than a townhouse or unit sometimes choose an affordable area with higher crime but plan to take security measures, she added.

Her research has found that factors such as a rapidly growing population and high unemployment can influence crime in a suburb.

On the positive side, Dr Diaswati said a new infrastructure or commercial project that has created many jobs can help reduce crime rates in an area.

She said it’s important that people don’t worry too much about crime statistics because a suburb’s individual circumstances, such as population growth or factory closures, which caused a surge in unemployment, could sometimes contribute to fluctuations in the number of crimes, such as burglaries.

For many buyers on a budget, the price of a home and its surrounding amenities can outweigh concerns about crime.

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Belle Property Blairgowrie director Tim Bradler said although cases of youth wandering and vandalism spiked when a huge influx of tourists arrived in the region during peak summer, this did not usually involve burglaries.

“Holiday homes have been empty for centuries without any problems, even though they are usually equipped with good security measures,” he says.

“The area is perceived as very safe and with neighbors keeping an eye on things, there is certainly a sense of community.”

Home security measures can include window and door locks, security cameras, alarms, lighting, remote monitoring, shutters and sensors.

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Further analysis of crime statistics by Titan Shutters shows that in 2025, ten Melbourne suburbs each saw more than 400 burglaries.

The CBD led with 1319 offences, followed by Preston, Dandenong, Reservoir and Frankston completing the top five.

While there aren’t many homes in Melbourne’s CBD, average house prices in the four other suburbs have all increased by as much as 13 per cent since January 2025.

The Titan Shutters analysis of Victorian crime data shows that of the 48,386 burglaries recorded in the state in 12 months, 17.3 per cent were serious burglaries – which could mean the perpetrator was carrying a weapon or knew someone was in the property.

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MELBOURNE’S RISING BURGLARY HOTSPOTS

Burglary offenses apply for the year up to and including September 30, 2025. The average house price increases apply for the year up to and including January 2026. Source: Titan Shutters, Victorian Crime Statistics Agency, PropTrack.

Anyone with information about unsolved burglaries or burglaries is urged to contact Crime Stoppers anonymously on 1800 333 000. Photo: NCA NewsWire/Brendan Beckett.

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ADVICE FOR BUYERS CONSIDERING A SUBURB WITH INCREASING CRIME:

+ Expect higher insurance premiums and be aware that some insurance companies may even deny coverage for some areas;

+ More burglaries and more insurance claims can cause more stress for the family;

+ Higher security costs, such as CCTV cameras and push-button safety devices, increase household expenses;

+ Consider renting in an area to see what it’s like before you buy;

Living in an area with rising crime rates can sometimes mean higher insurance premiums for homeowners.

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+ Try the “coffee test”. Spend a few hours sitting in a local shopping street, square or center and people watching to get a good sense of the area and its demographics;

+ If you are considering buying a particular house, walk up and down the street and talk to the neighbors about the area, its crime rates and how safe it is;

+ Please note that most suburbs have streets and individual areas with low crime rates, while other streets and neighborhoods in the same suburb may have higher incidences.

Source: director of Advantage Property Consulting and buyer attorney Frank Valentic.

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