Many people’s dark horse, Elina Rybakina, has burst into the spotlight, securing her place in the Australian Open final with a 6-3 7-6(7) victory over Jessica Pegula in the second semi-final played at Rod Laver Arena on Thursday evening.
It was really stressful. I had an epic tiebreaker here a few years ago and lost ii. I think this was the longest [any] woman [has] played, and there was a little flashback, but I’m super happy that it went my way in the end. Jessica Pegula
It has been 3 years since Rybakina was last in the final at Melbourne Park, when she was defeated by Aryna Sabalenka, who won in 3 sets for the AO 2023 title.
Rybakina had to hold off a late-stage comeback attempt from Pegula, who was trying to become the first woman in the Open Era to reach her first two major finals after turning 30 years old.
The 2024 US Open runner-up saved three match points by serving at 3-5 behind in the second set, before breaking Rybakina twice when the Russian-born Kazakh served at 5-4 and 6-5 for the match.
However, Rybakina managed to win a tight tiebreak with clutch tennis, winning the last two points of the match with her sixth ace of the match, and her sixth return winner of the day, improving to 4–3 in her head-to-head clash with Pegula after their first meeting on the Grand Slam stage.
“Really happy with the win today,” Rybakina said after her victory. “It was a very tough second set, but I’m glad it went my way. I think I’ve gotten better throughout the tournament.
“I think what’s important for me is that I started this tournament maybe not in my best shape, but throughout the tournament I got better and played better every match.”
The tall Kazakh has now won 19 of her last 20 matches since falling to Sabalenka in the quarter-finals in Wuhan last October.
The 26-year-old then won Ningbo, reached the semi-finals of Tokyo (giving Belinda Bencic a walkover), won the WTA Finals Riyadh and reached the quarter-finals of Brisbane to tie her career-best winning streak with 13 in a row, which was broken by Karolina Muchova.
Rybakina has quickly regained her momentum in Melbourne, having now also won nine matches in a row against Top 10 opponents, and she is guaranteed to return to the Top 3 in the PIF WTA Rankings next week for the first time since January 2024, where she will be behind Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek regardless of the final result.
The fifth seed packed too much punch early on against Pegula, before later gaining the upper hand in a battle against her own nerves and triumphing in an hour and 40 minutes.
But in the closing stages, as Pegula applied more and more pressure, Rybakina had noticeably tightened up, only to do so again when she almost gave away a 4/2 lead in the tiebreak.
“Sometimes when you’re about to lose everything, you get a little bit of clarity because you’re like, ‘Fuck it, I’m just going to try to stay in this,’” Pegula said later. “I played some really good points to save the match points, and you know, she missed a few short balls, and it just gave me a little rhythm, a few free points to take some pressure off.
“Honestly, I felt like I was starting to figure out what to do at the end.”
In the second set breaker, Pegula continued her bold, aggressive play, claiming 4 out of 5 points, capped by an overhead smash, to create a set point of her own, which would have squared the match, but she suddenly lost control when Rybakina saved the first with a forehand winner.
Pegula scored her own forehand on the second, and it was Rybakina’s turn to seize an opportunity, and with her thunderous power, the fifth seed slammed the door shut in emphatic fashion, putting her over the line.
Two years ago, Rybakina suffered a heartbreaking 6-4 4-6 7-6[22-20] loss to Anna Blinkova in the second round in Melbourne, with the final set breaker becoming the longest ever at a Grand Slam.
“It was really stressful,” Rybakina said in her on-court interview. “I had an epic tiebreak here a few years ago and lost ii.
“I think this was the longest [any] woman [has] played and there was a little flashback, but I’m super happy that it went my way in the end.”
Rybakina, who is looking for her second Grand Slam title after winning Wimbledon in 2022, has not dropped a set at Melbourne Park this fortnight.
The 26-year-old Kazakh set an ominous tone early on, holding on to love before breaking through to 30.
In fact, Rybakina only lost 6 points on her serve in the opening set, despite only getting half of her first deliveries in the game, while also earning several freebies when her first serve had too much punch and her second serve had too much kick.
Jessica Pegula was overwhelmed at the start but created chances in the second set and break, but was overrun by Elena Rybakina, who reached the AO final for the second time in her career.
© Phil Walter/Getty Images
Sixth seed Pegula was so quick out of the blocks in her quarter-final victory over compatriot Amanda Anisimova, but she lacked that same sharpness against Rybakina, who thrived in the cooler, calmer conditions.
By the time Pegula settled down, the opening set was already out of reach, eventually concluded in 32 minutes on a blistering Rybakina crosscourt forehand.
Pegula cut a despondent figure when she was broken in the third game of the second, but the 31-year-old from New York immediately broke back when she got her first break point opportunity.
Both struggled to hold serve as the set progressed. Pegula broke at 5, but Rybakina couldn’t close and sprayed a wild forehand to force a tiebreak.
Ultimately, the match was decided on Rybakina’s racket, with the Kazakh netting 31 winners compared to Pegula’s 14.
The American’s best Australian Open campaign, after three straight quarter-final appearances from 2021 to 2023, came to an end under the weight of her opponent’s devastating firepower.
“It’s tough, I had a great tournament here,” Pegula said. “I played very good tennis, defeated a lot of good players and fought tonight, but of course I want to win the tournament. It always sucks when that doesn’t work out.”
“So I feel like my experiences over the last few years have really made me, I don’t know, a lot more comfortable at this stage.
“I’ve now reached two Slam semi-finals in a row, I think that’s very good, and I’ve put myself in these positions. I still feel like I’m improving as a player.”
Pegula had good reason to believe she would keep this campaign alive, given the way she had dismantled reigning champion Madison Keys and fourth seed Anisimova, both in straight sets, in the previous rounds.
Her record against Rybakina was also strong, having claimed half of their six career meetings, although she had succumbed in both matches last year.
“It’s tough when you’re playing against a big-scoring girl in these conditions, you know, because you always feel tense, like they’re going to hit some winners, or some aces, in her case,” Pegula added. “I think at first I was a bit erratic, maybe a bit overthinking, and not just relying on the things I had done.
“But you know, the circumstances certainly make it more difficult, and I just didn’t adapt as quickly as I needed to. I played really good tennis, fought tonight, but obviously I want to win the tournament. That always sucks when you don’t do that.”
“To win these tournaments you have to be able to adapt to these different conditions at different times of the day and on different courses. I think I’ve gotten a lot better at that.
“I think there’s an improvement there tonight. I think I’ve started playing better against someone who hits as big as she does on a slower pitch. I think I did better tonight than maybe a few years ago, so that’s promising, but still frustrating I think.”
“Yeah, just something I need to figure out.”
Elena Rybakina defeated Jessica Pegula in straight sets to reach the final against Aryna Sabalenka on Saturday
© Darrian Traynor/Getty Images
Rybakina is in her second AO final and the 2022 Wimbledon champion will face the same player she met in her first, in 2023, Aryna Sabalenka, who prevailed, 4-6 6-3 6-4, to claim her first of four major crowns to date.
The world number 1 still leads 8-6, including 5-4 on outdoor hard courts, but Rybakina leads the series 3-1 in the finals, including a 6-3 7-6(0) victory in their most recent meeting in the 2025 WTA Finals Riyadh title match.
“It was a great battle that we played here, it was very bad,” said Rybakina, recalling the 2023 final. “Only at the end she played a little better. She won that match, very deserved.”
“Throughout the match I obviously had a few small chances, but at the end of this third set I think Aryna stepped in. She deserved that win.
“Of course, many years have passed and many matches have been played. Hopefully, with all the experience I gained from this last match, the last time I played the final here, I can bring that to the Saturday match and give my best, obviously focusing on my serve.”
Since we are both very aggressive players, serving is important. Hopefully it goes my way this time.
“I want to enjoy the final and hopefully I will serve better than today and that will help me.”
Rybakina may have expressed her dissatisfaction with her serve after her encounter with Pegula, but for much of the match she had been putting on a serving clinic.
When two of the tour’s biggest servers and most aggressive starters face off on Saturday, with a history between them dating back to 2019, consistent aggression will prove to be key.
They have met six times at WTA 1000 events, three times at the WTA Finals, and this will be their third meeting at a Grand Slam.
“I think her shots are heavy, deep, flat shots,” Sabalenka said of Rybakina. “She’s not easy to work with, but we have a great history. She’s an incredible player. We’ve had a lot of great battles, played a lot of finals. If it’s her, I’m looking forward to [battling] this power.”
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