Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how these insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities that the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will tap into traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we tap into the most appropriate markets for a particular position or angle.
Matthew Stafford is thriving against the Baltimore Ravens pass defense
Only the Giants have played more man coverage this season than the Ravens, who have stuck with their man-heavy approach despite injuries that have weakened their secondary. As we’ve explored at PFF, man coverage outcomes reflect individual talent: Stronger wide receivers beat weaker cornerbacks, and the reverse is true.
This week, the Ravens are expected to start a beefed-up secondary that includes sophomore corner TJ Tampa (46.7 PFF grade) and Keyon Martin (44.6). They will be tasked with covering Puka Nacua and Davante Adams – PFF’s No. 1 and No. 18 rated receivers, respectively.
It’s probably no coincidence that Matthew Stafford has excelled in man coverage this season, given the consistency with which his wide receivers are winning in one-on-one situations. He is averaging 0.50 EPA per game versus man coverage, and now faces a Ravens defense that is playing man at one of the highest rates in the league and may be at its weakest point all season.
I’ll root for the Rams and watch alternate spreads, Stafford passing props and same-game parlays built around Los Angeles dominating a depleted high school in Baltimore.
Miami Dolphins pass rush to exploit Chargers weak links up front
A basic study of offensive line play has confirmed that pass protection functions as a weak system: when a lineman misses a block, it can derail the entire game and significantly impact offensive production. That principle is on full display with the Chargers, whose current status in pass protection can only be described as a complete disaster.
Joe Alt was one of the NFL’s best pass protectors, and his absence looms large for the Chargers. He has been replaced by Austin Deculus, a downgrade that seems like a disaster waiting to happen. On the other hand, Bobby Hart hasn’t played since 2022, when he had a PFF grade of 31.7.
This is about as dire as it gets at the tackle spots. The interior isn’t much better: the Chargers’ center ranks second in the PFF class, and Mekhi Becton ranks 67th out of 78 qualified guards.
When Herbert was forced to operate behind a bad block, the results have been poor: He has posted some of the league’s worst EPA numbers in games with a block breakdown.
While Miami’s pass rush has been struggling overall this season, closer examination suggests a positive regression may be in store. After ranking last in every pressure category through Week 3, the Dolphins have since posted a 13% rush pressure rate and a 20% pressure disruption rate – both marks that would put them in the top half of the league.
Personnel-wise, both Chop Robinson and Zach Sieler earned PFF grades in the mid-70s just a year ago, but currently rank in the low 40s. If either player returns to 2024 form, this unit could resemble last season’s top-10 pass rush.
I’ll focus on Herbert Unders, Miami alt-lines, and other bets related to the Dolphins’ pass rush disrupting the Chargers’ offense.
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