Given the break for the Leafs, we’ll keep it a little shorter today, but here are a few thoughts:
Strategically take back salary
Whether the Leafs are buyers or sellers, it seems like it would be a huge waste of Toronto’s upside not to maximize available cap space at the trade deadline while limiting commitments for next season. If Toronto withholds salary on three deals, that’s a miss. If they don’t take back their salaries where they can, that’s also a mistake.
Helping Kyle Dubas may not be high on the Maple Leafs’ wish list, but re-signing Kevin Hayes’ contract from Pittsburgh would make sense for the Leafs, especially since Dubas’ deadline history often involves bringing in players he is familiar with.
Adam Henrique is someone the Oilers want to dump and could also be worth a look for the Maple Leafs in the remaining games of the season.
In addition to the pending unrestricted free agents, the Leafs have the opportunity to be smart about taking back salary, which also comes with a set term attached. Who can they look at who doesn’t fit well in an organization and who they think can get more out of themselves as a Leaf? Who might be expensive, but fits a need on the Leafs roster and might be worth it if they get an incentive to take that contract back? And who with a few strong months on the Maple Leafs could be someone they can turn around this summer?
Edmonton’s Andrew Mangiapane is a name that has already come up when looking at what could make sense for the Leafs. Even if he stays with the Oilers, he has infinitely more appeal than gambling on Trent Frederic’s contract and the ability to capitalize on it.
Is it possible that Jesperi Kotkaniemi could also be such an option from Carolina? He would certainly be worth a look if the Hurricanes need to move salary.
Given the limited number of quality unrestricted free agents, there should be a bit more incentive to gamble on players who might not be a good fit for their current clubs. It’s just a matter of how often the Leafs have to feel comfortable taking that risk, and Toronto’s history of landing reclamation projects shows that the player usually doesn’t have more to give in a new setting.
Watch other teams go into halftime
Now that the standings are officially frozen until the end of February, there is a clearer picture of where the Leafs stand in the playoffs. They are six points behind Boston, seven points behind the Sabres, and are also behind the Blue Jackets and Capitals for the wild card race. Even if other teams fall out of the playoffs, the Leafs might not have the strongest case for getting in.
Teams like the Senators, Blue Jackets and (arguably) the Leafs who became popular right before the break are going to lose some momentum, so it’s probably best to just think of it as a cluster of two teams with 65 points, two with 63 points and two with 61 points. These are all somewhat out, but will look like they are close to the playoffs through April. Of those teams, the Blue Jackets, Capitals and Senators are the clubs with a positive goal differential and have a stronger case. The Capitals, like the Leafs, are light in remaining home games (the Caps have 11, the Leafs have 10) and both the Blue Jackets and Senators have the advantage in that regard, and both have better road records than the Capitals or Maple Leafs.
Of the teams in the playoffs right now, only Detroit has a negative goal differential (minus-1 compared to the Leafs’ minus-7), and only the Boston Bruins have a losing record on the road.
The Bruins, Capitals and Sabers are highest on the PDO side and could see some regression, while the Senators, Hurricanes, Red Wings and Panthers were all on the unlucky side of things and could see gains over time, with the Leafs at 100.9, on the luckiest side of things.
What’s also fair is recognizing that just as acquiring players like Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton at the trade deadline did little to shift the bar at the trade deadline for the Maple Leafs, selling them wouldn’t cause the Leafs to dramatically fall out of their long run either. There was little harm in selling when the Leafs entered the break with Easton Cowan in the press box, a capable option with Jacob Quillan waiting for an extended look, and the reality of the salary cap era means players will also come to the Leafs to balance things out.
Hypothesizing that Bobby McMann would be traded to the Oilers and Adam Henrique or Andrew Mangiapane would be traded as a salary dump returning to the Leafs, Toronto still has another viable NHLer to use. The Leafs may be slightly worse, but McMann’s departure isn’t a huge step backwards for the Leafs. As the number of trades increases the impact becomes greater, but realistically the Leafs don’t trade everyone on their trade board. And of those who are traded, McMann is likely someone on the most impactful side of things anyway.
While the three-game winning streak was nice for Toronto and the Leafs managed to gain four points over the Bruins in that time frame, the Leafs are still very outward looking and planning their deadline around hope and wishful thinking instead of what history and numbers tell them would be a big mistake.
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