Macro fears keep Bitcoin roiled despite hitting three-week highs

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin rose above $90,000, but options data shows traders are uncomfortable with downside risk exposure.

• The outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and low demand for leverage suggest that investors remain cautious about near-term gains.

Economic uncertainty limits Bitcoin’s price rebound

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $90,000 on Saturday, leading traders to wonder if there is enough momentum to regain the $95,000 level for the first time in seven weeks.

Even as the S&P 500 traded just 1.3% below its all-time high, investors were concerned about deteriorating economic conditions, especially after electric car maker Tesla (TSLA US) reported disappointing sales.

Tech-focused Nasdaq index futures failed to regain the 26,000 level as the sector remains torn between optimism around artificial intelligence and risks related to weaker U.S. labor market data.

According to According to Bloomberg, Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries were 418,227 units in the fourth quarter, down 15% from 495,570 a year earlier. Shares of Tesla fell 2.5% on Friday and remain 12.2% below their all-time high.

In contrast, muted optimism emerged from China after shares of Chinese technology company Baidu (BIDU US) rose 15%. The company filed for an initial public offering with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to spin off its artificial intelligence chip unit, Kunlunxin.

The tech sector has clearly supported the Nasdaq’s 20% gain through 2025, but traders worry that valuations have become excessively high.

BTC Hits Multi-Week Highs, But Leverage Remains Cool

Demand for bullish leveraged BTC positions remained flat on Saturday even as Bitcoin rebounded to its highest level since December 12.

Bitcoin’s price has been limited to a relatively tight range of 6% over the past 20 days, leaving investors increasingly concerned as the breakout above resistance continues to be delayed.

Bitcoin futures base rates were below the neutral threshold on Friday, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls.

The current 4% annualized premium over spot markets reflects traders’ concerns that US tariffs could weigh on the broader economy. On the upside, the most recent retest of the $85,000 level on December 19 was not enough to trigger broader bearish sentiment.

The lack of demand for bullish leveraged Bitcoin positions can also be linked to the selling pressure in Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since December 15, these products have recorded net outflows of more than $900 million.

Meanwhile, gold ETFs have posted seven consecutive weeks of net inflows, potentially signaling weaker confidence in U.S. economic growth amid growing concerns about government fiscal conditions.

Skepticism remains around $90,000, but there is no panic

To determine whether Bitcoin whales and market makers have turned bullish after the two-day 3.2% gain, it is necessary to examine activity in the BTC options market.

Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a premium on Saturday as professional traders demanded higher compensation for downside exposure.

While the indicator remains within the neutral range of -6% to +6%, it is still far from bullish, which is typically signaled by an inverse put-call skew. BTC derivatives indicate continued skepticism around the $90,000 level, although there are clearly no signs of excessive fear.

Related: No, whales are not collecting huge amounts of Bitcoin: CryptoQuant

Inflation remains a major concern as the US government plans to introduce fiscal stimulus measures to stimulate the economy. According to the CME, bond futures markets estimate only a 16% probability that rates will fall to 3.25% or lower in April. FedWatch tool.

For now, Bitcoin derivatives traders do not expect further price increases, and confidence is likely to slowly recover after a month-long consolidation around $89,000.

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