Mortgage purchase application details
Purchase request data had another positive week, both on a weekly and annual basis. The main goal with this data set is to get at least 12 to 14 weeks of weekly gains, and so far the year is moving in that direction. Last week we saw 5% week-on-week growth and 18% year-on-year growth. In 2026, the extremely low threshold for annualized growth in this index has now disappeared, so it is somewhat surprising that we reported double-digit annualized growth for both weeks.
These applications typically provide a 30 to 90 day lead on sales data. Here’s 2026 so far:
- 2 positive results from week to week
- 0 negative prints from week to week
- Two weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
Weekly ongoing sales
Weekly pending home sales provide a week-to-week perspective, although results can be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Last week again showed positive growth, both week-on-week and year-on-year. These numbers typically appear in the existing home sales report, 30 to 60 days after pending sales are recorded. Last week marked the highest weekly pending sales in several years.
Weekly open sales from the past week in past years:
- 2026: 56,252
- 2025: 52,165
10-year interest rate and mortgage interest rate
In the HousingWire forecast for 2026, I expected the following ranges:
- Mortgage interest between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year interest rate fluctuates between 3.80% and 4.60%
Last week, global events such as the global summit in Davos and significant volatility in the Japanese bond market had an impact on the financial markets. The US and Japan discussed an intervention plan to support the yen, which shows how much drama we had in the bond markets last week.
Mortgage rates rose from 6.07% to 6.21% and ended the week at 6.19% Mortgage news daily. Given the events of the past week, that’s not too bad. Mortgage interest rate lock details from Polly shows a weekend rate of 6.23%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage interest rates have remained stable partly because mortgage spreads have improved significantly, especially at the beginning of this year. This time last year, similar bond market conditions would have resulted in interest rates of 6.30% to 6.40%, but improved spreads have helped limit interest rate increases.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.82%. If spreads were to match 2023 peak levels, mortgage rates would be 1.29% higher, at 7.48%. Now that spreads are returning to normal, mortgage prices may remain lower for longer than in previous years.
Weekly home inventory data
The housing stock has shown positive trends as the market moves towards normalization. However, since mid-June 2025, inventory growth has slowed year over year from 33% to 9.81%. Given the more challenging year-over-year comparisons this spring, similar growth rates in 2026 are unlikely. But as long as we grow year over year from where we are now, versus where we were at the beginning of 2022, that’s a plus.
- Weekly inventory change: (January 10 – January 17): Inventory increased from 695,628 Unpleasant 697,868
- Same week last year: (January 11 – January 18): Stock rose from 632,076 Unpleasant 635,529
New advertising data
The new advertising data for 2026 is encouraging. The goal is not only to reach 80,000 new listings per week during peak periods, but also to exceed this number in a few weeks. Last year, reaching 80,000 marked the bottom of the typical 80,000 to 100,000 range, but after that growth stalled.
For context, during the housing bubble crash, the number of new homes added ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for several years. Here you will find the new advertising data for the past two years:
- 2026: 53,920
- 2025: 50,946
Price reduction percentage
Typically, about a third of homes experience price reductions, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. Many homeowners are adjusting sales prices as inventory increases and mortgage rates remain high. In 2026, it will be important to observe how supply and demand respond to mortgage rates near 6%, rather than rates of 7% or higher between 2022 and 2025.
Last week’s price reduction percentage:
Upcoming week: Fed week, home prices and inflation
This week is the Federal Reserve meets, but interest rates are not expected to change. The question-and-answer session after the meeting will be closely watched as Jerome Powell wraps up his term and President Trump prepares to announce a new Fed chairman.
Several house price index reports and PPI inflation data will also be published this week. In addition, the president announced a 100% tariff on Canada if it reaches a deal with China, and market reactions will become clearer when trading begins Monday.
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