The guidance was in stark contrast to rival Novo Nordisk A/S, which warned investors on Tuesday that sales could fall by as much as 13 percent this year due to intensifying price competition in the weight-loss market. Lilly, on the other hand, expects sales to grow by as much as 27 percent this year.
Lilly shares rose 8.3 percent at 9:32 a.m. in New York.
Weight-loss drugs are in high demand, and Lilly and Novo are fending off competition from telehealth companies that sell cheaper copycat versions. President Donald J. Trump has also made reducing drug costs a top priority, and both drug companies have signed deals to offer lower prices as a result.
Lilly is in a relatively stronger position than Novo, because its blockbusters Mounjaro, for diabetes, and Zepbound, for obesity, still have ten years of patent life left. Lilly has also been more proactive in combating copycat competition. Meanwhile, Novo’s drugs will face generic competition in some countries as early as this year.
“This is just more evidence that they dominate the category,” Mizuho’s Jared Holz said of Lilly’s market position in obesity. “Novo plays from the back and everyone knows it.”
Lilly’s full-year revenue will be between $80 billion and $83 billion, Lilly said Wednesday, beating the average Wall Street estimate of $77.7 billion. Lilly expects 2026 adjusted earnings between $33.50 and $35 per share, compared with the $33.08 per share analysts expected.
The drugmaker expects the obesity market to grow even bigger this year after the Trump administration agreed to cover the drugs for more patients in Medicare, the government’s health program for the elderly.
Lilly is also awaiting approval for its weight-loss pill, which could be available as soon as April. Novo launched a slimming pill this year that is off to a strong start. In the four weeks since its launch, more than 170,000 patients have taken the pill, Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday.
Lilly is willing to move quickly to compete. The company has already produced billions of doses of its oral drug ahead of launch. The company has said the lowest dose of the pill, if approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, will cost $149 per month.
The drugmaker is also selling a new multi-dose version of Zepbound, a move that helped Lilly secure its deal with Trump. Previously, Zepbound was available in the US in two different forms: a single-use vial and a single-use auto-injector, which are discarded every week after use. In a letter dated Jan. 20, the FDA authorized Lilly to sell Zepbound in a device containing a month’s worth of drugs.
Lilly Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce said the company plans to launch the multidose pen within the next 30 days. The drug will be an option for Medicare patients once coverage becomes available. Montarce said the company also plans to offer the multidose pen to patients through Lilly’s direct-to-consumer platform, where patients can pay cash for medications.
The company’s strong portfolio of existing and emerging drugs is helping it gain an edge over rival Novo, even amid the pricing pressures facing the entire industry, BMO Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said in a note.
“Although Lilly and Novo operate in the same markets, the pressures they face are not identical,” Seigerman said.
Lilly’s Zepbound has proven more effective than Novo’s Wegovy and has also helped the Indiana-based drugmaker gain an edge. In a head-to-head study last year, Zepbound helped patients trim about two inches more from their waists than Wegovy.
Upcoming medications
The company is also testing new and potentially more effective weight loss drugs under different conditions. For example, the next generation retatrutide for weight loss is being used in studies of obesity and other related conditions such as cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease. In December, Lilly said the drug helped patients lose nearly a quarter of their body weight, potentially making the experimental drug the most powerful weight-loss drug yet.
Lilly has also begun new studies of brenipatide – an experimental drug that mimics the same hormones as Zepbound – in tobacco use disorder, bipolar disorder and asthma. The company was already conducting research into the drug for alcohol use disorders.
And while Novo focuses primarily on diabetes and obesity, Lilly’s portfolio also includes other disease areas, including neuroscience, immunology and cancer. The company won approval in 2024 for a new drug to slow Alzheimer’s disease called Kisunla. It is also investigating another experimental Alzheimer’s drug called remternetug, which could deliver results later this year.
In the fourth quarter, sales of Lilly’s weight loss blockbuster Zepbound were $4.3 billion, compared to estimates of $3.8 billion. Diabetes drug Mounjaro reached $7.4 billion, compared to estimates of $6.7 billion. Mounjaro is gaining popularity outside the US, where sales reached $3.3 billion.
Overall, Lilly saw revenue come in at $19.3 billion for the quarter, beating average analyst estimates of $18 billion. Lilly’s earnings of $7.54 per share beat expectations of $6.73 per share.
Lilly said it sees global price declines in the low- to mid-teens this year, driven in part by the agreement with the U.S. government to reduce drug prices and new cash prices.
More stories like this are available at bloomberg.com
Published on February 5, 2026
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