Take a deep dive into the current state of Kentucky basketball and one of the first things you’ll see is that the headlines are far worse than the analytics. The Wildcats are 7-4 and have been booed off the floor at times, but according to the statistics, they are actually the 19th best program in the country. KenPom.com. They have a top-20 defense and a top-40 offense, while playing without Jaland Lowe for a while and completely without Jayden Quaintance.
Yet that is not what the expectations were this season. Kentucky reportedly had the highest payroll in college basketball. There was no debate that it had one of the deepest rosters with 13 legitimate rotation-caliber talents. That came after assembling the No. 5 transfer class and the No. 6 high school recruiting class in the country while retaining the likes of Otega Oweh, Collin Chandler, Brandon Garrison and Noah Trent.
So where is the gap between the money spent, the talent raised and the product BBN sees on the floor?
Injuries certainly play a role, but this was a squad supposedly built to overcome these types of adversities.
Ironically, I don’t really even have any complaints about the individual staff ratings. Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno, their top two recruits, were both local Kentucky natives. British coach Mark Pope had to have them, even if it meant spending too much. Quaintance may have just torn his ACL, but he was still widely desired in the transfer portal. Lowe came after chasing other senior guards, including Donovan Dent, Dedan Thomas and Silas Demary. Denzel Aberdeen, Mouhamed Dioubate and Kam Williams all made valuable contributions.
My problem is not with the individual pieces. It’s the way those pieces fit together. More specifically, it’s how those pieces fit together in Pope’s system heading into Kentucky’s game against No. 22 St. John’s in the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta. (12 p.m. ET on CBS, CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium)
Lack of shooters: Great Britain misses the target
It’s no secret that Pope appreciates three-point shooting and the spacing it provides. His last team at BYU took half of their shots from behind the arc. His first team at Kentucky set a program record by connecting on 341 three-pointers on the season, even though their average of 25 attempts per game was significantly less than the 35 he previously said he wanted them to shoot. The vast majority of those attempts came down to four players: Koby Brea, Kerr Kriisa, Jaxon Robinson and Ansley Almonor. However, none of them returned to Lexington this season, and many of the Kentucky players were the most committed and had questionable shooting histories.
It starts with Oweh, who had seen his percentages continually rise, but was often surrounded by good shooters and therefore had the luxury of being very selective with his appearance. Add Lowe and Aberdeen to your potential backcourt and you have 27% and 35% shooters from last season. Then it’s Mouhamed Dioubate, who was 12 of 26 from behind the arc last season but has been known as a nonshooter for almost his entire career. Even if the coaching staff hoped the group would all make incremental progress, they had to know they wouldn’t be the same caliber of shooters. Theoretically, though, Johnson, Kam Williams and Andrija Jelavic should help, along with the return of Noah and Chandler. The returners have proven that they are up to this challenge. However, that trio of newcomers shot a combined 26 of 97 from deep. That’s 27% of a group that would specialize in floor space.
Questions about the shooting were actually a topic of conversation this summer.
“This group may not have developed a reputation for being as productive shooters as some of the guys we brought in last year, but the progress they made each week over the summer was remarkable,” Pope saidfurther stating that over the summer the team had seven players who shot 70% or better from beyond the arc. “That translates into games. For us it has always been that way.”
Unfortunately, that is not yet the case.
Lack of playmaking: Recruiting guards is not a priority
Kentucky had a point guard problem a year ago, as injuries to Kriisa and Lamont Butler left Travis Perry as the only true point guard on the active roster in the heart of conference play. But when it came to building their depth this season, they emphasized almost everything other than primary ball handlers and playmakers. There are several big players, forwards, wings and even some guards, but Jaland Lowe is the only player on the roster who has ever been a team’s main initiator before. So because he struggled with injuries and was less than 100% even when he was in the lineup, Kentucky no longer has a true orchestrator.
Unfortunately, if you don’t shoot and don’t make plays, these problems reinforce each other. If you can’t shoot, opposing defenders can help their man a lot more, creating fewer lanes. If you don’t have good playmakers to begin with and the court is clogged, that’s not the basis for a productive offense.
To their credit, Kentucky has figured out ways to take care of the ball, but the consistency of their normal offensive plays isn’t the same, nor is their ability to get opposing defenses into long rotations.
Lack of connection in the system: players struggle with Pope’s plans
Let me be clear: Pope knows basketball, especially offensive basketball. He carries out good campaigns with modern clients. The problem is that he doesn’t necessarily have a modern roster. His current frontcourt of Moreno, Garrison, Dioubate and Jelavic shoots a combined 9-47 (19%) from three. Dioubate and Jelavic are also no passers-by. They have a combined 10 assists in 11 games.
There are ways to win with this type of selection. In fact, it’s not uncommon at the top of college basketball. But there’s a reason you don’t see teams like Houston, Purdue and Arizona running 5-out concepts or zoom plays. It’s because they understand that they are playing with two big players and that their success is instead dependent on points in the paint, rebounding and ball security.
In other words, it’s a different kind of math. The oversimplified version is that teams that prioritize three-point shooting try to win on a points-per-possession basis (think Alabama). Teams that prioritize size try to win with total number of field goal attempts. Kentucky needs to do math differently than before, and if the past few weeks are any indication, they’re starting to figure it out.
In a 67-64 loss to North Carolina this month, Kentucky attempted just 13 3-pointers, the fewest in Pope’s time in Lexington. In Saturday’s 72-60 win over Indiana, the Wildcats attempted just 15 shots from behind the arc, the second-fewest of his tenure. They also had 58 field goal attempts to just 44 for Indiana. They did that by taking care of the basketball (UK had four turnovers to Indiana’s 18) and winning on the glass — the Wildcats had an offensive rebounding rate of 33%, while Indiana’s was 28%.
Pope acknowledged the evolution after the game, but at the same time expressed optimism that the shooting can improve.
“We’re making some adjustments that make the game a little more cluttered, which I don’t like aesthetically, but I like in a very spiritual way,” Pope said. “It’s really physical, intense and combative, and I think we can exist in those types of games.
“By the end of the year I think we will be very dangerous when we shoot the ball. I do that too,” he said.
Lack of leadership: Oweh must set the standard
The area where Kentucky’s staff is built to be most effective is on the defensive end of the floor. Oweh, Dioubate and Quaintance should theoretically eventually be a dominant trio. Even now, regardless of the challenges they have faced, the Wildcats are still ranked in the top 15 in defense. They guarded the paint well and were a good rebounding team. But beyond the arc, the numbers say they might be lucky. Teams attempted about 42% of their shots from three-point range, but still made just under 29%. Normally there is a correlation between the number of three-pointers attempted and the number made, but so far Kentucky has defied that.
Beyond the numbers, there have clearly been times when Kentucky hasn’t fully competed on the defensive end of the floor. That’s unacceptable, especially since two of the returning players have been the biggest culprits. Garrison and Oweh were lax at times. They are not alone, but as returners they must build the culture and not deteriorate it. Garrison was recently benched as a result, but it is Oweh who must set the standard, both for the team’s benefit and his own.
He investigated the entry last June NBA draft before choosing to return, reportedly for a significant payday. That kind of investment comes with an inherent responsibility, and honestly, there have been times when he hasn’t lived up to it. He has all the tools to be one of the elite perimeter defenders in the country. That niche is also crucial for its long run N.B.A ambitions. But if he messes up rotations, abandons straight-line driving and doesn’t get back into transition, he’ll hurt both his team right now and his draft stock in the long run.
Pope has spoken clearly about the “hard truth” that the team “doesn’t know what it means to compete.” He has taken on a lot of responsibility and recently credited Oweh with “really trying to rally the guys” and “trying to show some leadership.”
At the same time, however, we’ve seen a more fiery version of Pope on the sidelines, which could be an indication that he feels he needs to fill that leadership void himself. Whether Oweh can be a verbal leader or not is one thing. What is critical, however, is that he practices what the coach preaches, especially on the defensive end of the floor.
In short, Britain’s problems can be solved
Kentucky’s problems through the first six weeks of the season have been multifaceted and there are lessons to be learned for future offseasons. They better prioritize shooting and floor spacing and build in contingency plans at that point. That will allow them to play the way Pope wants to play, which does have proof of concept.
However, these are solutions for next seasons. At this point it may be up to the coach to fill some gaps as best he can, whether that be through changing the playing style or through his personal behavior.
This weekend he’ll do it about 20 yards from his former college coach, with Rick Pitino and St. John’s next.
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