In his latest article, three-time top 200 finisher Lateriser talks about the replacements for Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m), the Free Hit and Mohamed Salah (£14.2m).
Well, it’s time to wake up from our FPL sleep. I say that because there are flags appearing left and right, the most important of which is Arsenal’s Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m), who could Missing 1-2 months.
Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) has rightly emerged as the most ‘discussed’ replacement option and Scout has already delved deep into possible replacements, which you can read about here.
VAN DIJK v DE LIGT
As things stand, I will probably opt for Van Djik as having a robust defender will be very fruitful in this busy period (despite my heart being tempted by someone else). He also fits best with my team rotation.
I currently own Gabriel, Jurriën Hout (£6.2 million), Mark Senesi (£5.0 million), Joachim Andersen (£4.5 million) and Joe Rodon (£4.1 million). Let’s take a quick look at the rotation so you know what I mean. It can help because these are very popular defenders and you need to look at your defense rotation to understand your needs.
If you look at the rotation here, I most need a defender in gameweeks 12, 14, 15, 16, 19 and 20. The four options I’m really considering are from Djik, Matthijs de Ligt (£5.0 million), Nico O’Reilly (£5.0 million) and Chris Richards (£4.5 million). Below you will find the match ticker for defenders in those game weeks to make life easier.
Manchester United and Liverpool both cover the fixtures for my current defense very well for the Gameweeks mentioned. While Brighton have ‘green’ games on paper, Brentford and Aston Villa are not ‘banker clean sheet’ games.
Some of the key comparison points for Van Djik vs De Ligt are below:
Van Djik v De Ligt
- Points: 41 against 39
- Price: £5.9 million versus £5.0 million
- Clean sheets: 3 to 1
- xG: 0.41 versus 0.99
- shah: 0.20 versus 0.48
- xGI: 0.61 versus 1.47
- Shots in the box: 4 against 7
- Great opportunities: 2 against 1
- xGC: 13.93 versus 16.78
- DefCon points: 12 against 8
- Total defensive contributions: 119 vs. 96
Van Djik seems the more reliable option, especially since United are still not a reliable option when it comes to defense. De Ligt has decent points potential due to set pieces and DefCon and has some great games in the near future.
One consideration we do have to make is where (if at all) we can save the money in the bank. Another choice I’m heavily considering is O’Reilly, but given the schedule I don’t fully trust his minutes and it doesn’t help that he’s away from Newcastle United this week.
I’m looking forward to a Free Hit in Gameweek 13 when O’Reilly has Leeds United at home. I haven’t completely ruled it out Daniel Munoz (£5.8m) neither. It’s worth checking out the match schedule below based on this excellent graph from @abhii_g7.
The main thing to look at is that Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all have a Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday schedule between matchweeks 13 to 15, which to me screams for rotation. As far as possible, we should think about minute-safe choices during this period; even the safest can see managed minutes.
Manchester City also have games every week for the foreseeable future, which is what worries me about O’Reilly, but I wonder if I could consider buying him in Gameweek 15 or 17 if Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.7 million) goes to the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON). I’m not too worried about Ait-Nouri’s threat as I feel O’Reilly is firmly the first choice for Manchester City. That said, the schedule is the schedule.
Just a quick note on Manchester United, who have a very conscientious schedule during this period and should be safe for minutes.
FREE HIT: GAMEWEEK 13 OR 16?
Your upcoming transfers also depend on your Free Hit strategy (if you have one in progress). For me it’s Gameweek 13 v 16 for the Free Hit.
GAME WEEK 13
One of the big advantages of a Gameweek 13 Free Hit is that Chelsea are playing Arsenal at home, which on paper isn’t the best match, and Crystal Palace are hosting Manchester United. You probably wouldn’t have any Arsenal or Chelsea players on a Free Hit and you could pick three Manchester City players (depending on the leak) and one or two Liverpool strikers by size.
Brentford and Aston Villa also have juicy fixtures, while club-owned Bournemouth travel to Sunderland, which isn’t the best fixture on paper these days. If you have a Free Hit in Gameweek 13, you can add Liverpool/Manchester United/Arsenal players this week and, in the case of the latter two, Free Hit them out for their tricky Gameweek 13 match. The big factor is that you don’t bet against it Erling Haaland (£14.9 million), even on a free hit.
GAME WEEK 16
The other option is Free Hitting in Gameweek 16. This involves a major strategic decision in my opinion.
If you’re Free Hitting in Gameweek 16, you may want to consider upgrading Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) to Mohammed Salah (£14.2 million) this week for his upcoming good run.
Manchester City travel to Crystal Palace in Gameweek 16, while Arsenal’s juiciest match in this period is against Wolverhampton Wanderers that same Gameweek. In Gameweek 16 you can use Free Hit Saka and a few Arsenal defenders. You can also bet against Haaland.
Getting Salah now (at the expense of Saka) is the most important decision I will think about in the coming days.
If you want more, we had our longest FPL Wire pod on Tuesday, where we dive deeper into Gabriel replacements, fixture congestion, and much more. You can watch it below.
#Lateriser #Gabriel #substitutions #Free #Hit #Salah