One of the most intellectually stimulating and potentially rewarding aspects of following emerging Derby prospects is backing up your opinion with a future bet, and there are two ways to do this: betting in the Churchill Downs pari-mutuel pools held during key preparation weekends and placing a fixed-odds bet via Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas.
Churchills third of the six pari-mutuel pools begins Friday, January 16 at 12 PM ET and ends Sunday, January 18 at 6 PM ET. Thirty-nine individual horses are on offer plus an “all other 3-year-olds” bet that opens at odds of 4-1. The Fair Grounds Lecomte Stakes will be held on Saturday January 17 – while the Churchill pool is open – and it is the first Derby points race with the winner awarded 20 qualifying points. This year’s Lecomte attracted a highly competitive field of 11 horses, including first, third and fourth place finishes in last month’s Gun Runner Stakes at the New Orleans track (Chip Honcho, Crown the Buckeye and Quality Mischief, respectively).
Caesars offers fixed-odds betting on Derby horses, but the upside is that bets can only be placed in Nevada, in person or through their geo-restricted app. If you’re traveling there this winter/spring or know someone who is, take a chance!
Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (January 12)
1. Ted Noffey (9-1)
2. Paladin (10-1)
3. Further delay (15-1)
4. Gunner (20-1)
5. Commandment (22-1)
5. Incredibolt (22-1)
Enter individual favorites Churchill Downs’ third Kentucky Derby pool (opening January 16)
1. Ted Noffey (6-1)
2. Further delay (10-1)
2. Paladin (10-1)
3. Gunner (15-1)
4. Commandment (20-1)
4. Litmus test (20-1)
5. Brant (30-1)
5. Incredibolt (30-1)
Early winter insights: We are in that seasonal interregnum where most of the best two-year-olds from late summer and autumn have not yet made their first start of the year, meaning the current Derby odds for most of them are unacceptable from a future betting perspective. Ted Noffey is of course a deserving winter book favorite. He is undefeated in four starts and hasn’t really been challenged. But as of this writing, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner and almost certainly Eclipse Award winner next week has not had a published workout since his Juvenile victory in November (UPDATE: a day after this article was published, Ted Noffey flew three furlongs at Palm Beach Downs). Ted Noffey is expected to return in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on February 28, where we will find out if he has taken the next step in development. At this point, 9-1 at Caesars and an opening 6-1 in Churchill’s third pool are a no-go. Likewise, at this point when assessing the 1-2 finishers in December’s Remsen Stakes, I’d put money down on second place Defector (40-1 Caesars, 60-1 Churchill) over winner Paladin (10-1 Caesars and Churchill) based solely on the inequality of odds.
A brigade of Bob Baffert-trained candidates is drawing support from would-be gamblers at Caesars and most are listed by Churchill. The problem is that, at least from my perspective, few have particularly distinguished themselves. Litmus test (25-1 Caesars, 20-1 Churchill) captured that elusive victory last month in the Los Alamitos Futurity against a questionable field featuring two Baffert stablemates. Brant (25-1 Ceasars, 30-1 Churchill), a buzz horse last summer based on his $3 million purchase price and two wins in one turn at Del Mar, isn’t worth giving up after his third-place finish in the BC Juvenile, but like Ted Noffey he hasn’t had any published training since that race. Desert Gate (45-1 Caesars, 50-1 Churchill), on the other hand, has been working steadily for Baffert in recent weeks and will need that foundation as he prepares for his first start since a second-place finish in the American Pharoah Stakes presented by DK Horse in September. Boy (28-1 Caesars, 60-1 Churchill) and Butane (66-1 Caesars, 75-1 Churchill) have impressed in one-turn races – can they be even better at longer distances? Origin (35-1 Caesars, not listed by Churchill) is an Into Mischief colt out of two-time champion Monomoy Girl who finished third in the Los Al Futurity and was taken to the horse ambulance after losing a shoe during the race…he hasn’t worked since.
That leaves perhaps the best Baffert bet right now from a future Derby perspective: Plutarch. Another Into Mischief colt, Plutarch finished a close third in the American Pharoah Stakes, skipped the Breeders’ Cup and then ran in two turf races to close Del Mar’s Bing Crosby contest, taking a rough third in a stakes and then dominating a maiden race at 1 1/8 miles. Owned by Coolmore Connections, this colt has trained regularly at Santa Anita Park and was scheduled to run in the Eddie Logan Stakes on the opening day of the turf, but was scratched when the race was postponed due to weather conditions. Because his dam is the champion dirt filly Stellar Wind, it is thought he will soon be relegated to that surface, and Plutarch is currently rated by Caesars at odds of 45-1 (not offered in Pool 3 at Churchill).
Three SoFla prospects: On January 2, Todd Pletcher received a workout Almost turned heads with a dominant five-length victory in a seven-furlong race at Gulfstream Park, easily beating an odd-on favorite and two other opponents. That win against a small field followed a 9 ¼-length romp against fellow Florida-breds in a six-furlong Gulfstream dirt sprint in late November. This son of the handsome young sire Not This Time has stamina in his mother’s bloodline and should remain in open company with a two-stroke test next on the agenda. He has odds of 60-1 at Caesars and opens Friday with odds of 50-1 in Churchill’s pool.
Last Saturday, two stallions trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott won their career debuts in impressive fashion at Gulfstream. First, Head Wallabee patiently followed the pace in a seven-furlong race, turning outside the leader in the early stretch and showing a push to clear that foe when jockey Junior Alvarado called for it, winning by a length and a half. Four races later, Alvarado employed a similarly patient strategy on board Thundering in a two-turn, 1 1/16 mile first race, and horse and rider took the lead in the middle with a sustained run and cleared to score by as many as five lengths. Chief Wallabee is rated at 75-1 by Caesars, compared to Thunderably at 125-1, possibly due to his higher first-out rate. He is by another good young sire in Constitution and is the first foal out of an unraced Medaglia d’Oro mare with some successful relatives in sprint and mile distance stakes. That would thunderously be my future choice for Derby at the moment, as he is by the great Gun Runner and out of the mare Princess Warrior, by Midshipman, who won stakes races at one mile and 1 1/16 miles (1990 Derby winner and influential sire Unbridled is a notable relative).
Bill Mott exemplifies patience in training and that should be kept in mind when evaluating these three-year first-out winners as Kentucky Derby prospects. However, it is worth noting that neither is campaigned by Godolphin (who finally claimed his first Derby win last year with the Mott-trained Sovereignty), so it is more likely that their owners will catch the ever-powerful “Derby Fever” and join the fray as the preparation calendar gathers pace. They certainly have the potential to be factors on a path to Derby 152 that is wide open.
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