So far, all the Blue Jays, Pirates, Red Sox, Padres and Angels have been prominently linked to Okamoto, who turns 30 next June. The longtime Yomiuri Giants star, who was their team captain before being drafted, is one of the most consistent sluggers in Japan. He is a career .277/.361/.522 hitter in NPB who has hit 30 home runs in all but two of his 11 seasons. That includes 2025, when injuries limited him to 69 games, and 2024, when he hit “only” 27 home runs in 143 games.
Despite hitting a career-high 15 home runs last season due to an elbow injury, Okamoto had the best production of his stellar NPB stint on a course-by-course basis. In 293 trips to the batter’s box, he slashed .327/.416/.598 with a robust 11.3% walk rate to match his minuscule 11.3% strikeout rate. His 24.3% line drive percentage last season was a career high, and Okamoto’s .271 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 41-home run season of 2023.
As a fellow countryman Munetaka MurakamiOkamoto is a corner infielder whose glove work involves big league teams. He is considered a better defender at third base than Murakami, but is still viewed by many clubs as a player who will likely spend most (if not all) of his first MLB contract as a first baseman and/or design hitter. These defensive concerns contributed significantly to Murakami settling for a two-year contract that fell well short of industry expectations. The defensive concerns surrounding Okamoto are not as prominent, nor does he have the alarming swing-and-miss profile that has also contributed to the bearish market for Murakami. However, Okamoto is four years older. Next year, his age-30 season will likely limit the length of his upcoming contract (although perhaps not to the same extent as Murakami’s).
Of the teams associated with Okamoto so far, there is no clear favorite. The Blue Jays probably still have that Bo Bichette for him on their wish list – possibly Alex Bregman also. Boston has also pursued both Bregman and Bichette (probably in that order). The Pirates have already acquired one option at first base by signing Ryan O’Hearnand have another one in Spencer Horwitz. If they really wanted to push Okamoto, they would have to have confidence in his ability to play third base. The Angels have a clearer path to playing time at the infield corners (particularly at third base). The Padres will not be moving Manny Machado at third base, so Okamoto would have to play first base with Jake Cronenworth manning second base and the KBO acquisition Month shifting to the outfield or a utility role.
It remains of course entirely plausible that other, as yet unknown clubs are in the bidding. The A’s, Mariners, Twins, Rangers, D-backs, Marlins, Mets, Cubs and Nationals all have varying levels of demand at the infield corners. Not all of these teams have a lot of money to spend this winter — the Rangers, Twins and D-backs are known to be reducing payroll costs from recent seasons — but each of the teams could get creative with deferred contract structures and/or cut payroll in other ways to make room if Okamoto is deemed a sufficient upgrade. To be clear, that’s a largely speculative list, but given Okamoto’s track record in NPB, it would be a surprise if “only” five of the 30 MLB teams had any interest in signing him.
It’s worth noting that while Okamoto was originally supposed to be posted on November 19, the MLBTR has confirmed that his post didn’t become official until November 21. That gives him the opportunity to sign a contract with a top flight club from the original January 2 to January 4. Whichever club signs him, he will owe the Giants a posting/release fee equal to 20% of the first $25 million of the contract, 17.5% of the next $25 million, and 15% of all dollars thereafter. This compensation is in addition to the value of the contract itself. Subsequent earnings (club/player options, performance incentives, incentive bonuses, etc.) also fall under that umbrella, once officially achieved.
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