A year earlier, Regaleira defeated men in the Hopeful and parlayed that into Grade 1 wins in both 2024 and 2025. In 2019 Contrail won the Hopeful and won the Japanese Triple Crown the following season, finishing second Almond eye in one of the most dramatic matches of the Japan Cup.
In short, the Hopeful is usually an important race for identifying players for next year’s Classics and beyond. And often, some of the top contenders for the Hopeful award make their cases known in preparation for the race.
The extension of the 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) race on December 27 at Nakayama Racecourse this year could prove to be another springboard to glory. But the candidates for future fame remain unusually undefined.
Croix du Nord was sent off as heavy favorite a year ago on the strength of a 2-for-2 record, capped by a win in the Hai Nisai Stakes (G2T) a month before the Hopeful. There are no Grade 2 winners in the field this year.
Bettors can consider two Grade 3 winners:Shonan Gulf And Justin Vista. On the sensor And Badrinath each have a stated win. After that there is a plethora of promising, but lightly raced colts, virtually all of whom seem theoretically capable of putting on a good show.
Justin Vista has impressed trainer Tatsuya Yoshioka not only with his determination in winning the Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3T), also at 2,000 metres, but also with his raw speed. During a work session a week outside the Hopeful, the colt recorded his second “lap”, or 200 meters, in :10.8.
“It’s not a number you see often,” Yoshioka said in understatement. “His footwork has lightened up compared to his last start and he is showing improvement.”
Shonan Gulf turned heads with a determined stretch move that came from well off the pace Gene King and win the Sapporo Nisai Stakes (G3T) on September 6. Gene King also returns for the Hopeful with a win, two seconds and a third.
There are some family tree clues.
Justin Vista and Anduril are both over Saturnalia who won the 2018 Hopeful Stakes. Saturnalia won the Satsuki Sho (Japanese Two Thousand Guineas, G1T) the following year and then finished second in the Arima Kinen (G1T), earning the title of Japan’s 3-year-old male champion.
Badrinath, like the aptly named Gene King, comes from the first crop of the aforementioned Contrail, but from the Galileo mare Mohini . He has not disgraced his forebears, with a second-place finish in his career debut and two subsequent victories, culminating in the Hagi Stakes on October 26 at Kyoto Racecourse.
The 2,000 meters of Nakayama is tough for horses of all ages, but a special challenge for young people. It starts at the top of the section, goes uphill for about 200 meters to the finish and continues to climb around the bend to the back section on the inner loop. The climb is a full 5 meters before the course begins to descend, and then it’s back up for the second trip to the section.
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