Oh, I definitely wanted to give up Jack Ladder. [snapping my fingers and shaking my tailfeather] What have you done for me lately, boy? What have you done for me lately? Nothing? Then I have to ask you to leave. Goodbye. That’s how I felt when I looked at his name. Just his name anyway. That was the reaction he caused in me. I feel like you struggle for a year, and by the second year you have to show something. What is “showing something” is the question, because there are different levels at which you can show something, right? Here are one man’s stats:
Player A:
1st year: 32 IP, 5.63 ERA — meh, just a rookie doing stuff. I can’t expect much else there.
2nd year: 149 1/3 IP, 4.34 ERA. That’s a lot of innings. That shows something, doesn’t it? That’s basically who he is, isn’t it? Do you need more? Okay, I’ll give more in a moment.
Player B:
1st year: 35 2/3 IP, 8.83 ERA – woof, my man. Are you trying to give us a heart attack? That’s terrible, but hey, he was a rookie. What else do you have?
2nd year: 151 2/3 IP, 3.86 ERA — OK, that seems better than player A. I’d like to know more, but it looks promising.
Player A, more since you asked: 2nd year, 9.9 K/9. 2.8 BB/9, 2.1 HR/9, 25.7% chase rate, a lot of meh, but this guy was said to be solid.
Player B, more: 2nd year, 8.8 K.9, 4 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 26.8% chase rate, which is a bit better than Player A, but the walks are concerning.
Okay, who are player A and B? Leiter is clearly one of them. The command may have given that away. Yes, player B is Jack Leiter. Player A is Tarik Skubal. [staggering around, clutching heart] Player A is WHO?! [falls into a rose bush and doesn’t even feel the thorns piercing the skin] I can’t feel things anymore, this has shocked me to my core. So what can we expect from Tarik Skubal? Wait, sorry. So, what can we expect from Jack Leiter for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! All of my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings are on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to appear later this month. Anyway II, the Jack Leiter sleeper:
I’m not trying to turn Jack Leiter into “Nu Tarik Skubal”, but Leiter was highly touted and only has 187 1/3 IP in his career. Fantasy baseball players love to give up on a guy before he breaks out. Basically, this is what they like to do most: get incredibly overhyped for their rookie year, which is almost always a mess and pointless, and then cautiously approach a guy again in his second year, let him succeed relatively, but then leave before the third year because the second year still wasn’t an ace year. I’m sorry to tell you that Tarik Skubal’s third year wasn’t a great year either. He went 3.52 ERA, 9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 117 2/3 IP. It’s really an unfair comparison (and that’s why I keep making it) because Skubal was in charge, but Leiter’s is missing. No matter how serious, his things are still in disarray.
Jack Leiter’s four-seamer was thrown 38.8% of the time and yielded a .189 BAA. Stutter, yum, stutter. That’s actually how I originally came across this post. I was looking for the top 20 pitches in baseball for K% from starters (a guy had to throw it in 250 at bats to remove relievers). Since you’re wondering, Framber’s curve had a value of 44.6 K%. That was the best. Chris Sale’s slider, Skubal’s changeup and Cris Sanchez’s changeup. I’m not going to go through them all, but if you have a top 20 field, you really need three other fields that are horrible and useless. Jack Leiter’s four-seamer is the 20th best pitch in baseball for K% (25.7). Does he have three more horrible pitches? His slider yielded a .239 BAA 23.3% of the time and his changeup, which he threw 16.5% of the time, sorted by K%:
This resulted in the qualifying games being significantly reduced to 100 at bats. Below Leiter are guys like Devin Williams, Tommy Kahnle and Edwin Uceta. Guys who aren’t starters. So maybe it’s not a stretch to compare him to Tarik Skubal, as he appears along with him on several lists for best pitches. Leiter needs to better control his pitches, which is why he’s a sleeper and is currently drafted around the last round in 12-teamers (about 275 total), and an absolute steal. None of this even mentioned that he’s in one of the best stadiums for pitching. Well, except for this one non-mention. For 2026, I give Jack Leiter projections of 9-10/3.71/1.26/164 in 161 IP with a chance for much more.
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