Is this the start of Bitcoin’s next big correction?

Bitcoin is testing its 365-day average as analysts warn of a possible downtrend, forming a Death Cross and facing strong resistance above.

This line has supported the price during previous rallies and is now being tested again.

Testing a proven level of support

The 365-day moving average has held steady through earlier stages of this market cycle. In several cases, Bitcoin recovered from this level and subsequently posted large gains. Notable rebounds from this line include moves of over 190%, 124%, and 65% in earlier phases of the current uptrend.

However, in mid-2022, Bitcoin failed to maintain this trend. According to Satoshi Stacker, when that break occurred, the price fell by about 66% before a bottom was found. This shows that while the average can serve as a base during rising trends, a break below it can shift momentum in the opposite direction.

Bitcoin tests the 365-day moving average.

This level has supported $BTC The entire bull market and previous upswings turned into major new uptrends. However, the last time BTC fell below this level, it dropped -66% before bottoming out. pic.twitter.com/qhBzjVLtZT

— Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) November 12, 2025

The current price is just above average, and a clear move in either direction could signal the market’s next move.

Cycle pattern indicates ongoing correction

Charts that track Bitcoin cycles show a repeated pattern: a multi-year rally followed by a year-long decline. According to market data, each major cycle bottomed out about 1,064 days afterward. The most recent peak of nearly $126,000 also came 1,064 days after the November 2022 low.

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Analyst Ali Martinez noted,

“If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle is reflective of 2015-2018 or 2018-2022, the top was on October 26 and a macro downtrend may have already begun.”

Based on this model, a bottom could occur around October 2026, with a target range between $38,000 and $50,000. Past declines of 77% to 84% support this display.

The recent price action and the timing of the high are both consistent with patterns from previous cycles, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a longer correction.

Furthermore, BTC’s short- and long-term moving averages are close to another Death Cross. This technical signal is often seen as negative, but has not led to deeper declines during this cycle. Instead, most Death Crosses were followed by Golden Crosses as the market recovered.

More crypto online explained that these signals often only arrive after the move has taken place.

“Almost every Death Cross in this cycle was later followed by a Gold Cross,” they said.

This makes them more useful for context than for prediction.

Resistance keeps the price below key levels

Bitcoin saw a short-lived rally following political developments in the US, including a proposed tariff dividend announced by President Trump. The move drew comparisons to previous stimulus policies that preceded strong gains in risky assets.

Meanwhile, BTC is struggling to overcome resistance between USD 107,000 and USD 118,000. As CryptoPotato reported, long-term holder selling and broader macroeconomic concerns are putting additional pressure in that zone, limiting Bitcoin’s short-term upside potential.