This year’s field features a compelling mix of homebreds, expensive yearling purchases and everything in between, creating a competitive betting race packed with value. The home bred Winchell Thoroughbreds Herb runner pulled the rail for trainer Steve Asmussen as Joel Rosario rode him for the first time. After winning the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes Two he will start again on the Churchill main circuit in September and has achieved an Equibase Speed Figure of 80. The Gun Runner colt has 11 Kentucky Derby points and a graded stakes victory to his name. Cherokee Nationa $1.15 million yearling purchase, is looking for his first trip to the winner’s circle. He comes from the West Coast to trainer Bob Baffert, with the red-hot Flavien Prat lined up to ride him for the first time. Dr Kapur rode clear to a maiden victory by 2 ¾ lengths last time in his second career start and will attempt an unpaved route for the first time for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Soldier N Diplomat embarks on a nine-length romp, a mile over the sand at Churchill for Asmussen. Very connected took his first win in his third career start in September on a sloppy track at Churchill. He has three points on the Derby trail after finishing third in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes last time out for trainer Kenny McPeek. Further Ad broke his first by as many as 20 lengths in his third start in October at Keeneland. He is one of the most highly anticipated runners in the Kentucky Jockey Club, making his stakes debut for trainer Brad Cox, while Irad Ortiz Jr. holds the mountain. Universeanother McPeek trainee, drew the outside post and enters the race with consecutive top-three finishes in ranked stakes.
Analysis and top contenders:
While Cherokee Nation is still looking for his first career win, this Not This Time colt, purchased for $1.15 million at Keeneland’s September 2024 yearling sale, appears to be incredibly talented. Cherokee Nation made its debut in a 5 ½ furlong dirt sprint at Del Mar in early September and finished a distant fourth, defeated by 11 lengths, while earning an uninspiring Equibase Speed Figure of 68. At his next start at Santa Anita Park in mid-October, the Baffert trainee improved significantly when he tried a two-turn route for the first time. Driving a mile on the dirt roads, Cherokee Nation was quickly swept into the lead and dueled down the backstretch, posting strong quarter-mile splits of :22.83 and :46.94. In the last turn the 3-5 favorite Mr. AP took command, but Cherokee Nation went nowhere. The pair battled it out down the stretch and Cherokee Nation battled back on the inside, narrowly missing a nose as they finished 12 ¾ lengths ahead of third. This was extremely impressive to fight back as a 2-year-old after setting the pace, especially considering that winner Mr. AP then finished second by a length behind undefeated Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA. Cherokee Nation earned a career-best speed rating of 106 for that effort at Santa Anita and is shipped off to Kentucky on a mission to not only break his maiden but score some points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. A big plus for this horse is the addition of Prat, who won a remarkable 50% on 28 horses last week. Historically, Baffert and Prat together have been nearly unstoppable, winning 40% (19-for-48) and 71% in-the-money in high-stakes races over the past three years. Cherokee Nation has been working well at Santa Anita since its second-place finish and is in second place late on pace with a 112.0 behind Further Ado’s massive 120.5. While Cherokee Nation would normally be heavily favored under these circumstances, Further Ado’s presence adds significant value.
The return of Further Ad after his twenty straight wins have deservedly become the focus of this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The Gun Runner colt was a $550,000 purchase by Spendthrift Farm during the OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training sale. He debuted at Saratoga in July and finished fifth by 3 ½ lengths behind fellow Kentucky Jockey Club competitor Soldier N Diplomat, then took a small step back in his second start, dropping from a 78 Equibase Speed Figure to a 69 when he finished third in another dirt sprint in August at Saratoga. Everything changed the last time in Keeneland. Furthermore, Ado stretched to two turns for the first time and delivered a breathtaking performance as he earned a career and field-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure in a 1 1/16 mile special first weight with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board. The numbers all point to Verder Ado. Cox is winning at a sharp 30% clip among the last winners over the past two years, and Further Ado comes in with both the highest late pace rating and highest last-out speed rating in the field. Over the past year, horses with that combination have won by 29% on dirt routes, with 61% in-the-money finishes from 190 starts. Furthermore, Ado has continued to train since that breakout, including most recently a strong five-furlong breeze in :59.60 at Churchill on November 15. He could very well run away with this race, although it’s a tall order for a 2-year-old to replicate such an extraordinary feat.
Soldier N Diplomat comes to the Kentucky Jockey Club in late October with an impressive performance, going nine lengths in an optional allowance race at Churchill, while recording a career-best speed rating of 91 going a mile on the dirt. The Asmussen-trained colt will again be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who was in contention for the win. Soldier N Diplomat made an immediate impression in his career debut at Saratoga, defeating Further Ado in a first special weight race with an 85 Equibase Speed Figure before making a big leap up the class in the Grade 1 Spendthrift Farm Hopeful Stakes, where he finished a distant fourth behind Ted Noffey. His most recent victory marked his first attempt on a dirt route in a one-turn mile, leaving the two-turn question yet to be answered. Still, Soldier N Diplomat has shown tremendous talent in all three of his starts. With a proven affinity for the Churchill surface and a strong track record of finding the winner’s circle, Soldier N Diplomat has every chance of putting in another big effort on Saturday.
The rest of the field (with the best Equibase speed figures in comparable races): Spice Runner (88), Dr. Kapur (88), Very Connected (88) and Universe (92).
Win contenders in preference order:
Cherokee Nation
Further Ad
Soldier N Diplomat
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