Is Bitcoin’s price about to fall off a cliff or is the correction over?

Bitcoin’s loss rates are well above bottom levels, while price action and futures data indicate the market may face more downside.

Current data from on-chain metrics and price action suggest there could be even more room to fall.

A key loss-tracking indicator used by traders is not yet at the levels that marked previous market lows.

Losses on the chain show more space below

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez points to a historical pattern based on realized losses. When the average unrealized loss for short-term investors falls below -37%, there have often been strong entry points.

Some of the best buy-the-dip opportunities have appeared when Bitcoin $BTC The on-chain trader’s realized loss drops below -37%.

It currently stands at -18%. pic.twitter.com/k5rys0yip5

— Ali (@alicharts) December 11, 2025

This data tracks coins kept for one to three months.

These holders are down an average of 18% compared to their positions (as of December 8). While this reflects the pain in the market, the level is well below that seen at previous lows. Bitcoin is also trading below its realized price of around $112,300. The cryptocurrency is near $90,400 at the time of writing, indicating that many traders are still underwater.

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Previous declines of more than 37% occurred in early 2020, mid-2022 and late 2023. Each time, the market later turned around and went higher.

Price slides after Fed Meeting

Bitcoin fell after the US Federal Reserve held its policy meeting in December. The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, and Chairman Jerome Powell said another cut could come in 2026.

The current weekly loss is over 3%, with a 24-hour drop of over 2%. The price has been trading in a wide range between $89,623 and $94,177 over the past 24 hours (CoinGecko). The last high was $126,080 in early October, meaning the market is down more than 28% from that point.

Additionally, Bitcoin futures on the CME have retested a key trendline. After breaking a linear downtrend, the price has now returned to the breakout zone, according to to Superro. These types of retests are often viewed by traders looking for confirmation.

At the same time, the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average – a setup known as a death cross. This is the first death cross on CME futures since 2022. While this is not always a reliable signal on its own, many traders use it to mark trend shifts or confirm weakness.

Traders pay attention to key zones for direction

Analyst CRYPTOWZRD noted that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed without a clear direction. A break and hold above $94,000 would support an increase. Below $89,250 the chart remains weak.

The price is now trading within a tight range. Until there is a clear breakout, traders remain patient and look for stronger setups in shorter time frames.

Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen sharply. According to Ali, there is total open interest fallen from $47.5 billion to $27.5 billion in just two months. This indicates reduced exposure across the board.