He added that the passenger car space remains the strongest growth sector. “It’s been a year, in fact, it’s been four or five years since we’ve seen a meaningful increase in PV and there has been quite a bit of cheering in the last year. This GST rate has brought down the bigger cars, if anything the prices have come down quite a bit, so a lot of the sales from September would have been pushed into October,” he explained.Shenoy expects the real demand picture to emerge in November once the festive and GST-related disruptions subside. “Since we are seeing the November data when there is no festive pressure and also the GST rate cut, the gap would have cleared in the month of September and the November data will be more revealing. But to a large extent the PV market is the bigger play here it seems and the two-wheeler market is benefiting from it but relatively speaking it is not that big so we will have to see how those numbers will evolve in November too. The CVs will take some time,” he said.
In commercial vehicles, Shenoy emphasized that the recovery would be linked to broader investment activity, which remains subdued. “Some of it is related to more investment and that’s not really happening meaningfully at the moment. It will probably take another four or five months,” he added.
IPO market buzz and investor caution Shifting focus to the primary market, Shenoy weighed in on the recent IPO frenzy, citing examples such as Lenskart’s strong subscription and the volatility seen in Oyo’s gray market premium. gold diggers,” he noted.
He warned that investors should wait for financial clarity before jumping into newly listed companies. “We won’t know about the financial sector until one or two quarters after they go public, how they behave after they go public, whether the profits are sustainable, whether they create value, and all those things won’t show up until a little bit later,” Shenoy said.
Pointing out a common trend among funded startups, he noted, “One of the problems with some of the funded companies is that their biggest investors tend to want to exit after that first six months, when they’re stuck in some way. Then you notice that a lot of these stock prices seem to drop in that six to 12 month period or in the first year period.”
He advised private investors to take their time rather than rushing into IPOs during the hype surrounding the IPO day. “You have enough time so you don’t have to buy them right away and to that extent we will have to see how this performance turns out,” he said.
As for gray market premiums (GMPs), Shenoy was dismissive of their predictive power. “Gray market premiums are unfortunately functions of sentiment and change quite quickly and don’t really indicate what will happen, say a month or two months after listing. They’re pretty much focused on day premiums. It’s kind of a black market for the IPO population,” he said.
Despite the speculative talk, Shenoy sees value in growing investor involvement around IPOs. “It’s nice to see that people are interested, there are different opinions, a lot of discussion, a lot of anger and unhappiness among many players, that’s all a good discussion because things like that should come out, but the real work will only come with time, so we will have to wait at least two quarters before we see any value being created,” he concluded.
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