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Markets resulted in a strong session with improved risk and profit and profit that extend over multiple activa classes. American Macr data were the primary catalyst. Core CPI landed in accordance with expectations, while weekly unemployed claims were a spiked to 263k. All in all, the data judgment of the data that the FED will lower the rates next week strengthened, with a 25BP movement completely priced and a cumulative 75bp reduction that now expects by the end of the year.
Equities maintained their upward process with the SPX that recorded fresh record heights and the Nasdaq-100 that broke through the 24,000 level Intraday. It is important that the progress is far beyond the technical sector, materials, health care, consumer discretion and financial data. This rotation underlines a better depth of the rally and challenges the story that profits are overly dependent on the mega cap names. Width of participation suggests that institutional and retailing on the retail trade reinforce each other, at least in the short term.
Pullbacks Intraday remained shallow and were absorbed, forcing many of the offside curses to chase the tape higher. History of the past two years suggests that buying new highlights has not been a mistake with dips that prove opportunities to restore exposure. With speed reductions on the horizon, this pattern will probably continue to exist in the short term.
The movements were more nuanced in treasuries. The 10-year return slid around to settle near 4.02% and for the first time since April touched 4%. The curve stained somewhat and reflected a mix of the expectations in the short term and in the longer term tax sustainability problems still remain. Earlier in the week, the Benchmark Revision of the Bureau of Labor Statistics fired more than 911K jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, which strengthens the perception of a softer labor market and strengthened the case for the cut of the FED. Although a cut of 50 BP remains a catarter risk, it is unlikely that policy makers run the risk that such a movement will run the risk, so that the consensus is anchored at 25 BP.
Looking ahead, the risk lies in buying the rumor, selling the fact. With markets that lean heavily in a 25BP, the Fed risks disappointing if he delivers the expected step with little to no hint to further accommodation. As such, shares could see that profitable, bond returns can modestly return, gold can return part of his stellar run and the dollar can find support in the short term. The broader story remains, markets are optimistic on the monetary relaxation in the short term, but still consciously that the path to broader economic stability is uneven. US shares are at record levels with growing width, treasuries confirm their signaling role, the dollar floats sideways with a softer bias and gold continues to act if the barometer of underlying market ensures.
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