July comes in a big week with events. From interest decisions to negotiate deadlines, this week promises to shape the sentiment of the investors for the second half of 2025.
Monday – Rising Notes
We started the week with reports of two short-term security in the US today, the US Department of Treasury held auctions for 2-year-old and 5-year-old Treasury notes. Nuts of 2 years came to 3,920%, a strong increase compared to the 3,786%of June. In the meantime, 5-year banknotes followed at 3.983%, also with an increase compared to the 3.879%of last month.
Higher returns suggest that investors will remain high prices in those interest rates, possibly as a result of inflation problems or growing debts. And that will probably be a hint for what OT expected from the rest of the week.
Tuesday – Consumer confidence
On Tuesday, the Conference Board will release its latest consumer confidence – index – a widespread measure of how Americans think about the economy. The report reflects the views on jobs, business circumstances and spending plans and offers instructions on where the demand for households can be invested.
Last month’s lecture came in at 93.0 and this year marked the second lowest level. Markets now expect an increase in an increase of 99.4, which would indicate improving sentiment as the inflation problems stabilize convenience and working conditions.
On Tuesday, the first day of the FOMC meeting of July will also contain, because board members gather in Washington for their fifth policy meeting of the year.
Wednesday – US BBP QoQ
In the middle of the week we can view the last reading of the American GDP for the second quarter. Although still the first GDP overhaul, the data will give us an estimate of the inflation-corrected change in the value of all goods and services produced.
Later the Federal Reserve will announce its new (or old) interest decision, which will take effect until 17 September. Markets and analysts are in force that the FED will opt for a “not a change” policy, which means that interest rates keep the current 4.25% – 4.50%.
This is one of, if not the, most important economic event of the month. An unlikely rate reduction would certainly stimulate the interest of investors in risk markets such as crypto and shares. According to predictions, however, we will probably not see any rate reductions until September.
The White House is also expected to issue a digital assets report on Wednesday. The potential for further insight into the plan of the US government with regard to allocation and the use of crypto can be a huge boost for market optimism in the future.
Thursday – PCE price index
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the lecture of the Core PCE Price Index in June, the preferred meter of the Federal Reserve for inflation. The figure of the month is expected to increase by 0.3%, an increase compared to the 0.2%of May, which suggests a light pick-up in underlying price pressure.
Friday – Rates
To end the week, it is predicted that unemployment will offer a basic point of 4.1%of June, while PMI inches will be produced closer to the 50-point threshold, indicating a potential shift to expansion. However, the ISM production prices are expected to cool down, which fall from 69.7 to 66.5, another hint that could relax the inflational pressure.
In the meantime, the tariff negotiations of Donald Trump will finally come to an end. So far, the US has concluded deals with large trading partners such as Japan, Europe and the United Kingdom, and you lock 15% rates for most goods.
Brazil and Indonesia are currently running the risk of receiving the stricter rates from all countries, as high as 50% on goods.
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