India has emerged as a relatively safe haven under emerging markets (EMS) in the midst of global trade inflections, according to a recent report by JP Morgan.
The report adds that India is expected to book the highest GDP growth between countries in the worldwide universe of JP Morgan in 2025. Growth is also supported by timely demand stimulans and measures that have strengthened the urban household balance.
Moreover, a recovery in the rural economy, further helped by a favorable monsoon, contributes to the positive prospects. It stated: “India: falling inflation, improved system liquidity and lower loans to increase growth. Timely demand stimulus and support for the balance of urban households”.
The strategists of JP Morgan’s emerging markets are constructive in various countries of emerging markets, including India, Korea, Brazil, Philippines, VAE, Greece and Poland. Under this, India has a weight of 19 percent in the MSCI EM index and was assessed by JP Morgan as “overweight” (OW).
The report noted that EM shares had seen important outflows since August 2023, but this trend has begun to reverse in recent weeks, starting to pick up the inflow. This change suggests the growing trust of investors in the EM room.
According to the report, Foreign Exchange (FX) remains an important factor in the performance of EM -own capacity. Historically, EM shares perform reversed to the US dollar. The recent weakening of the US dollar, especially after the announcement of rates, could continue to benefit EM shares.
The report also emphasized a positive trend in profit prevention revisions. After having experienced consistent downward revisions in recent years, the prediction overex index for EMS started to move up with DMS, which indicates a more optimistic prospect.
The YTD (year-to-date) performance of India is now 5.8 percent in local currency conditions and 5.7 percent in US dollars. Although it is not the best-performing EM countries in absolute numbers, India’s stability and growth output make a strong contender for long-term investors.
In general, the report suggested that with improving basic principles and favorable circumstances, the report suggested an important market to look under emerging economies.
Published on July 22, 2025
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