Bhansali noted that the current phase of Sideways Movement lasted almost a year comparable with the 18-month consolidation between October 2021 and June 2023. Despite a strong GDP growth, he pointed out that the nominal GDP extension remains in one digitness.
“The profit growth has gone out of the quarter after quarter. Although the Q1 may have marked a soil, the Q2 income can also remain sub-side due to the loss of sale between the GST announcement in mid-August and the party season. If the festive question sentiment, we can see an income, an income of markets of markets, ‘Benali.’ Bhansali stated.
Consumption, cars and retailings in Focus
Ambit AMC has repositioned portfolios for domestic sectors, in particular cars and discretionary consumption to both mass and premium ends. The Fund House has also started building positions in selective Retail lenders, including uncovered credit players.
“Exports to the US can best be avoided in this environment in view of volatility and policy security. Interior consumption offers better visibility, and as soon as the private capex absorbs the back of the rising capacity use, companies will also benefit,” said Bhansali.
Retail-guided benches and NBFCs well positioned
With credit card spending, UPI transactions and digital payments that increase during the festive period, Bhansali expects that retail-oriented banks and NBFCs will win in the short term.
“Bedrijfking takes more time to deliver, but retail banks are well placed to ride the consumption cycle. In the long term, the use of 80%and business lending will also make sense,” he added.
Fii outflows, but the interest in India is increasing
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have become net sellers in recent months and put pressure on the indices. Bhansali, however, believes that the global investor sentiment about India is improving. “I go to the US and Canada on a roadshow, and the reception against India has been phenomenal. Once the overhang of the rate has resolved and the interest rates fall further, the inflow of the interest rate must return to the next few months. In combination with strong domestic currents, this would be higher in 2026, he said.
Market forecasts
According to Bhansali, the direction of the market depends in the short term on the Q3 income and festive consumption trends. Although consolidation can last for a few months, it is expected that India’s domestic demand, the steady SIP flows and a final Fii Combackback are the most important triggers for the next rally.
“2026 could be a strong year for Indian shares,” Bhansali concluded.
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